SPL7013: A broad spectrum antiviral with massive future earning potential

Re-posting with, hopefully, better format and easier to read:

I originally invested in Starpharma predominantly for the amazing potential of the DEP portfolio, about which I remain very confident . I am now also very confident and excited about the short and long term potential of SPL7013.

It is my opinion that the market is seriously underestimating the very large and long-term earning potential of SPL7013 for antiviral indications.

Company announcements state:

- SPL7013 has broad spectrum antiviral and virucidal effects, with activity demonstrated against a range of viruses, including HIV, herpes simplex virus (HSV), human papillomavirus (HPV), adenovirus, H1N1 influenza virus, hepatitis B virus (HBV) and Zika virus.

- SPL7013 COVID-19 nasal spray is virucidal against SARS-CoV-2, inactivating more than 99.9% ofSARS-CoV-2

- Potent antiviral activity of SPL7013 against SARS-CoV-2 was evident when used either before or after exposure of cells to the virus meaning that the nasal spray could be used before or after exposure to the virus.

- SPL7013 can subsequently be developed for other applications: eyedrops; inhaled; injected.

SPL7013 MARKET OPPORTUNITY FOR RESPIRATORY VIRUSES:

COVID 19 Pandemic:

Many people do not realise that the COVID 19 pandemic (in the absence of vaccines) has a long way yet to run. If a herd immunity rate of 40% is sufficient to slow down transmission, the US should be around halfway through the pandemic phase in January 2021. If a higher required herd immunity is required to slow transmission, this would push the US halfway mark further back. In countries such as Australia, the pandemic has effectively not even started, having been suppressed through harsh quarantine and other measures.

Without widespread vaccination, it is inevitable that a very large percentage of people (likely a majority of people) in the world will be infected with COVID during the pandemic phase.

There are no guarantees regarding either the effectiveness or time-frames of the vaccines under development. Vaccines, once available, are likely to only be partly effective, requiring additional measures for protection (ie. nasal spray!) for those at risk. Also, many people will opt out of vaccination, leaving themselves at risk, as well as reducing the effectiveness of vaccine-induced herd immunity.

COVID 19 ongoing transmission beyond pandemic:

COVID 19 is likely to never go away. After the pandemic it is likely to persist, long term, in smaller outbreaks and perhaps become a seasonal or perennial virus, like other coronaviruses.

We can learn from history by looking at the 1918-19 Spanish Flu Pandemic. An estimated one third of the world's population were infected and had clinically apparent illnesses during the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic. The number of mild/asymptomatic cases is unknown. All influenza A pandemics (and most cases) since that time, worldwide, (except human infections from avian viruses such as H5N1 and H7N7), have been caused by descendants of the 1918 virus.

Other respiratory viruses:

COVID 19 is just one of many coronaviruses that cause human respiratory disease. Many cases of the common cold are due to coronaviruses, along with other viruses such as rhinovirus. Given SPL7013’s broad spectrum antiviral activity, one would expect it to be active against other coronaviruses and I expect Starpharma will test it for activity against additional respiratory viruses. It is known to be active against adenovirus, which causes a lot of respiratory illness, as well as viral conjunctivitis (a promising use for the eye-drop application) as well as H1N1 influenza.

Future influenza / non-influenza pandemics:

Future respiratory viral pandemics are inevitable and perhaps will become even more frequent than in the past due to factors such as: an enlarging global human population; increasing movement of people; and an increasing emergence of new zoonotic diseases.

USE OF SPL7013 NASAL SPRAY:

I believe, once available, there will be MASSIVE GLOBAL DEMAND for the SPL7013 nasal spray (and perhaps also eye-drops) for:

1. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PREP):

Health workers who work in any area of health with direct patient contact. I work as a doctor in general practice and in a respiratory clinic and am looking forward to using the nasal spray, in addition to standard PPE precautions, during the pandemic and beyond as a long term measure to protect myself against a wide range of respiratory viruses.

High risk individuals. A significant(and increasing) percentage of the population are at an increased risk of severe illness from COVID 19 and other respiratory viruses. Examples include: the elderly; asthmatics; chronic pulmonary disease; immunosuppressed. These people could use the nasal spray before any outing, to reduce the risk of contracting a wide range of respiratory viruses during the pandemic and beyond as a long-term measure.
The general population. Look at how much is spent on poor products relating to the common cold. Pharmacies are full of junk products claiming to prevent or treat the common cold, most of which don’t work or only provide limited symptom relief. Imagine the likely demand for a product backed by evidence that it works.

2. Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP):

Any person who thinks, or knows, they have recently been exposed to a respiratory virus (eg. A contact is diagnosed with COVID; someone coughs near you at the office) could use nasal spray (and perhaps also eye drops) to reduce the chance of illness or perhaps severity of illness, during the pandemic and beyond as a long-term measure.

BRAND AWARENESS:

Imagine how instantly FAMOUS Starpharma’s nasal spray could become if it is the first widely available prevention and treatment for COVID 19. No amount of paid advertising for the launch of a new product could match the media exposure that this nasal spray is likely to receive if it is shown to be effective and available for use against COVID 19. This media exposure could set the product up for long term brand awareness and ongoing sales in the future. It could also result in increased brand awareness of SPL7013 for other indications (conjunctivitis eye drops, the vivagel portfolio).

Pandemic preparedness:

Governments are likely to keep and maintain (continue to buy more once stock expires) a stockpile supply of the nasal spray / drops as an easily stored, quickly deployable, cheap, broad spectrum antiviral for use in inevitable future viral respiratory pandemics. Pandemic preparedness will by a top priority for all governments after this COVID 19 pandemic.

Jackie Fairley must be confident regarding the global potential of the nasal spray. She stated that it ‘has the potential to have global impact’ (market announcement 21/10/2020).

NON-RESPIRATORY VIRUSES:

Injectable therapy:

Given the demonstrated broad spectrum of action of SPL7013, it is quite likely/possible that it could be used as an injectable in the future for a wide range of other serious systemic viral diseases.

Topical therapy:

It is quite likely that topical therapy indications could be widened (beyond the current use as an antiviral condom lubricant) in the future. I would like to see it marketed as an antiviral personal lubricant, which could reduce viral STI transmission (HIV, HPV, Zika, HSV). It could also be tested for and then hopefully be marketed for, reduction of bacterial STI transmission as well (eg. Chlamydia and gonorrhoea).