Spotlight on American Rare Earths, page-3632

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17/03/24

22:09

Post #: 72931078
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Originally posted by TheAlpha1: ↑

Take current spot prices for NdPrO, Tb and Dy and you can calculate pre-extracted inground asset value. Then refine and extrapolate spot prices to forecasted market demand expectations and supply deficits within a conservative estimate. Say for NdPrO $80-120,000t USD is a reasonable median price over the next 10 years from 2025-2035 based on forecasted demand and supply deficits. Once China can only meet domestic demand then there will be a period of 3-5 years where prices could exceed previous all-time highs north of $200,000t until supply catches up, so I'd say over a 10-15 year period we could see a floor of $80kt one year, the next $120kt with two to three years of new all-time highs north of $200,000t (USD). Without bothering to do the math, let's say that 140kt with 70% confidence over 10-15 years beginning in 2025. Assuming all goes right with Don's 2026 timeline that gives us 9-14 years of raking in 140kt with mine plans under Gibbs targeting up to 7000t annually NdPrO. We don't know what it will cost to produce 1t NdPrO but we can calculate the cost of acid, electricity costs etc with 90%+ accuracy. The closest we've gotten from Don is and I'm paraphrasing here "at current market prices which is around $50-55kt when he commented, our PEA shows we're competitive." Therefore, we're profitable within that pricing bracket. Hypothetically, if we were making 20% margins at 55kt cost to produce is 44kt at 50kt then it'd be 40kt. Our complimentary HREEs Terbium is something like $1500kg and Dysprosium is about $400kg of which we have no idea until the PEA drops how much they intend on producing, and even with NdPr I'm going off the high end of Gibbs mine plans at 7000t annually. Extrapolating in-ground value on 1.81mt our 25% is 350-500B USD I think then times a reasonable 4x for our remaining 75% at spot prices is trillions. So yeah, 5-10B USD MC might be a conservative valuation estimate especially once we're NASDAQ or perhaps NYSE listed. All off-the-cuff figures on this post, take them with a grain of salt. Pre-pre-PEA type metrics.

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Either way, your figures evaluate the potential net worth of the deposit and the company.

ITS HUGE.

ARR Price at posting: 32.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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0 Great analysis

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Spotlight on American Rare Earths, page-3632

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Spotlight on American Rare Earths, page-3632

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