I want to start a discussion on the different potential catalysts that SPL currently have on the radar. Below are my takes on each of the 'irons' that SPL has in the fire.
NOTE: I am a current holder and I am not looking to sell. If any other forum members want to criticise me for being overly negative, then I challenge you to change my outlook.
VIRALEZE - In summary I just can't see this product providing significant revenues
Hong Kong - Latest quarterly suggests sales are not significant Vietnam - It seems this partnership with the Aussie based influencer has died off UK - What a mess..... Who knows what is happening in this region? EU - It seems only Italian pharmacies are stocking the product Indonesia - Registered for sale..... SAUDI - ?? INDIA - ?? AUSTRALIA - TGA still not giving approvals.
VIVAGEL - I think this product is dead in the water. It seems the pharmas that we have licenced with are not pushing sales of the product
UK / ASIA / EUROPE - Mundipharma launched the BV product and sales have amounted to nothing and now it seems they do not even sell the product anymore?
CONDOMS - Why even bother? No sales to date
CHASE SUN - No mention since Aug 2020
MERCK - No mention since Feb 2021
GENENTECH - No mention since Dec 2021
DEP INTERNAL - 3 trials running with earliest expected results readouts not until Q3 2023
DEP AZD0466 - Ph1/2 Trial still ongoing, seems like recruitment is accelerating, No indication on timing of completion of Ph1 of trail and subsequent milestone payments. Completion of trial not expected until Oct 2024
SUMMARY
In my opinion (which is based on runs on the board to date) I think VIRALEZE/VIVAGEL BV/CONDOMS are all a side show that will never garner meaningful revenue for SPL.
With all of the above it would seem that the only near term catalysts are the DEP internal Ph2 trial readouts in Q3 of 2023 (Jul/Aug/Sep)
That leaves us with at best 2 months and worst 5 months until readouts. Based on previously promised timelines for these trials I am also afraid that these times will almost certainly blow out.....
With EOFY tax selling in between I am truly concerned with where the SP will be come the time that these trials are complete.
It is now more than ever that SPL needs to communicate with the market and keep everyone informed of any updates, because the radio silence and smoke and mirrors approach is evidently NOT WORKING.
SPL Price at posting:
44.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)