I read and pay attention to all your comments and analysis Snider and I'm sure others do too.
I went through and had a look at the NCM price action history myself (if anyone is interested). Here is what I found. A meaningful bounce has always arrived after a 9,11, 14 or 16% falls.
Falls of 9-11% are common. Falls of 14% have occurred and falls of 15-16% have occurred but rare. We are certainly in rare circumstances (owing to fear of gold price plunge).
History can repeat and can be used to predict future movements. If you look at Mr. WD Gann's methods, they were also based on past price action. He was know to be a successful trader.
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