Weekly Review Li Stocks - 15th Mar 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis. I also have performances of Li stocks for 2023 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week I have not added any new stocks to list, so my list still contains 96 stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Markets
- SP 500 after a long time did not make a new All Time High this Week. Also, unlike Fridays, it dipped this week. Is there a shift happening? Some correction, pullback, etc? Possible as it has risen on a straight line without much consolidation, but still held the weekly level, only slightly dropping from 5123 to 5117 - so, maybe not yet.
- Volatility Index VIX is just under 15 - still very bullish, for months now has kept this bullish level, which is also reflected in indices, but now testing some levels - it went over 15 this week but has come back to its fold, for now
- Bitcoin there is no stopping, last week I wrote 68k, this week its 69k, though crossed 73k as well, not sure what is going there, but has defied lots of pundits and logic for now.
- Sentiment Indicator - at Greed 70 - so same level as last week, after several weeks in Extreme Greed - currently no signal from here, except still positive
- Russell 2000 overall not doing great, more important indicator for risk-on/resource stocks. This week it lost 2%, though on Friday when other indices were in red, it finished on green, but we need a big boost here for all our resource stocks
- Yields were dropping but now they have made big jumps based on CPI/PPI data - more on PPI, so question marks still on rate cuts
- Dollar Index which was moving down, again going up
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li:
- There are some indications now that Indices may want to do back test, something which I wrote last week as well. This week indices were down on a weekly basis, so some signs of that pullback, there is a good chance that it may continue to test some levels.
- Russell 2000 is key for us, we want that to go up - hopefully when indices pullback, there is some rotation from big tech stocks to some risk stocks
- Key economic data this week around - Fed decision on interest rate. At this stage it is expected no change. But if it goes up or down, there could be some big market reaction
- Uranium Sector overview - Uranium Spot price is in consolidation mode after making 106 high, now at 91, though in some platforms its around mid 80s, last week was 93.5. U stocks also in consolidation phase. I have been talking about for weeks how I wanted to see CCJ at 39, it reached there, has tested that level 4 times now, it has held that, which I will take as a win for the sector. It doesn't mean we are back, but more we stay here and hold, less chances of going to next level of 35. So am neutral at this stage, watching. On Friday a decent gain of 3%, so at least start Monday on a positive note. My expectation of a 3 month break from January, so I was expecting next decent play to happen in April, I had got out of most U stocks in mid-Jan, so that theory is still alive, but I will not assume anything and follow price action
- Lithium Sector overview - Its in consolidation phase, same as I wrote last week. Most Li stocks had a big bottom around Feb 6th (and around it). Most have recovered from their very bottom, though some still around it. A recovery happened. Many Li stocks gained between 20 to 50%. Now a backtest/consolidation phase is in play. At this stage I am neutral. ALB did not succumb and nearly held 118 level. But it also could not finish above 128. SQM did better, it is now at its first positive level of 51 which gives hope. So to get positive I would like to see ALB get over 128, but more importantly get towards 150, SQM over 60 - till that time it could be a cat and mouse game
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Personally:
My current situation this week - 5% U, 50% Li, 30% Others, 15% cash. Main change from last week is have increased to some Biotech/REE stocks and decreased cash. Li I maintaining the level, but have some rotations across stocks.
U stocks I am waiting to see how it plays out, waiting for some signal, its getting close now towards bottom, I feel so
Li stocks similar exposure. Playing 2 stocks big, 3 moderate, and others I am rotating between strength and weakness
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Also added some REE stock this week which I was waiting for some time, had a good price action, so decided to take a punt. Also another Biotech, which I was previously scalping, did that few times, have now decided to hold and see what happens.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:- Another indecisive week, stayed at 4.1 as last week. Much lower volume in the week except on Friday around rebalance trades
- Key numbers to watch and play would be 5.1 on the upside, 3.7 on the low side - so a wide range, but as it stands, the move up may happen on a very big break - whether it happens or not is to be seen
- Compared to last week, SYA is still in the same zone - uncertain state
- In terms of where it sits currently, it is one of the stocks which is close to its bottom. Many others are much away from Feb 6 bottom. So many can think of a weakness, and it may be right if it continues to be weak, but many may think it could have much bigger bounce if Li sector turns around - I am playing for that, at this stage it may not look, but sometimes it does not take much for a turn
- Li sector lost 1% for the week across 96 stocks, so still weakness of last 2 week continues
- US Li had a big down last week - loss of 11% - this week, slight recovery of 3%, Although across stocks it was mixed, but key stocks ALB/SQM gained - so that is the only solace for the week
- On Friday, US Li stocks were mixed but ALB/SQM in green. ASX Li should start the week on neutral to some positive. Except on some Mondays, in the afternoon, suddenly it gets jittery - what's going to happen overnight? So won't be surprised to see a neutral play for day rather than positive. . ALB held 118 - now at 122, has made one attempt at 128 but could not hold, a hold over 128 may be a signal, which I will watching
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks:
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(20min delay)
