WHC (ASX) Target $18.72

Originally posted by Hugnis ↑

First HC post for me.

I'm a long term holder who remains happily overweight coal (mainly WHC).

Looking forward to the next qtly and divvy announcement. Whatever the outcome it can only be good news, even though I expect the divvy may be lighter than we hope and market sentiment to remain weak for now. At the current policy of 50% payout ratio including BB, in theory the BB will consume most of the available 50% funds for the next 10 months. 'In theory' because I doubt the BB will fully complete at the current run rate, and of course the Board will eventually have so much cash that the payout ratio should increase (or start paying special dividends). As an aside I hope the BB will be continuously extended and soak up whatever's possible even despite trapped franking issues.

My thanks to the many great contributors on this forum over the years. Though some have since left, many experts and wise heads remain (you know who you are). My thanks also for the ignore button to filter out the few drivel merchants of late.

IMO on any conservative calculation the sp remains below value, which is good news for long term holders. [not financial advice - DYOR]

Though I've learned a lot from this forum already I'm not from this industry, so if I could ask this brains trust a few minor questions that have eluded me:

1. Stockpiles - whatever the quarterly production and sales, the resulting stockpile seems uncorrelated. Eg in Sept '22 quarter Managed saleable Coal production of 4.2mt, Managed sales of Coal produced 3.7 mt, implying the stockpile should have grown by 0.5mt, yet it fell by 0.3mt.

2. Equity vs managed coal - I know equity represents our degree of ownership (eg Maules Creek 75%). For the other portion does WHC receive a fee for managing it on behalf of the other owners. Does anyone have a sense of $ scale for this?

3. Share based staff payments (ie management bonuses) - does anyone know if the shares for this are purchased on market? or issued as new shares - diluting existing shareholders so the SOI outcome after BB will be less than hoped.

4. Vickery and Winchester: p23 of the FY22 AGM presentation ('Portfolio of Assets') says Vickery would be primarily thermal coal and Winchester would be Met. Yet elsewhere (eg the co. website) says Vickery would be majority Met with some Thermal?

5. The co. website says capital investment for Vickery would be approx $700m and Winchester $1b (though only one would run at a time), starting 2024 subject to investment decisions. Can anyone give me a sense of how quickly or slowly the capital (cash flow) is needed (ie mostly upfront, equally over a few years, or ramping up over time) and how quickly new production comes on-line?

6. Over the years I've seen some great posts of the local area (pictures of coal stockpiles, train routes, and port movements etc). I'd like to take a tour through Newcastle and the Gunnedah region, - for the fun of it, and to continue building my understanding. All suggestions welcome (of course I won't see those on ignore, thankfully!).

Cheers to all holders - long term and recent.
Hugnis

My opinion only - do your own research

Expand

To get a good idea of the scale of a few mines, there are a few decent vantage points on either the Golden Hwy, between Muswellbrook and Denman, or, the back road from near Sandy Hollow to the Northern side of Muswellbrook

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(20min delay)
Last $6.96		Change 0.155(2.28%)		Mkt cap ! $5.743B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$6.86	$6.97	$6.83	$10.09M	1.461M

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