From GS, July 18th through Commsec;
WHC (Buy, A$2.6/sh TP, 22% TSR) We retain our Buy rating due to:
- Coal stocks - recovering earnings and remain undervalued: We also upgrade our EPS estimates, NAVs and TPs for the coal stocks under coverage and remain Buy rated on CRN, WHC (coal prices upgraded with WHC's recent June Q production report) and NHC. The outlook is positive for both thermal and met coal benchmark prices on ex-China demand strength and supply issues. All three coal names are trading at a discount to NAV, and earnings and FCF growth are very compelling in CY21/FY22 (c. 20% FCF yields) on our new coal price forecasts.
- Valuation: The stock is trading at c. 0.7x NAV (A$2.78/sh). WHC is currently pricing in long run thermal coal price of US$63/t at 70c AUDUSD, versus our long run price assumption of US$72/t for NEWC 6000kcal (FOB) and spot at c. US$145/t.
- Compelling FCF: The stock is trading on a FCF yield of 34% for FY22 on our base case and c. 73% at spot.
- Rapid de-gearing: we expect net debt to more than halve to just c. A$0.3bn by end of Dec, and we also expect management to announce more conservative balance sheet targets in August (current target is through the cycle leverage of 0.5-1.5x) and focus on de-gearing, reinstating a dividend in Feb 2022, and developing growth projects with our preference for brownfields and/or value accretive bolt-ons over greenfields.
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Last
$7.72 |
Change
0.090(1.18%) |
Mkt cap ! $6.458B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$7.69 | $7.77 | $7.56 | $31.42M | 4.079M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 23064 | $7.72 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$7.74 | 4002 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 23064 | 7.720 |
6 | 46955 | 7.710 |
6 | 42702 | 7.700 |
2 | 30207 | 7.690 |
1 | 3776 | 7.680 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
7.760 | 2345 | 1 |
7.770 | 8702 | 3 |
7.780 | 1100 | 2 |
7.790 | 24852 | 5 |
7.800 | 25631 | 8 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 31/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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