Hey @bug1 - can you share an updated list of total exports by...

Hey @bug1 - can you share an updated list of total exports by month of salmon to rest of world? I struggled on that data set to work it out.. ergh! Really interested to see how Australia is doing as we come into the growing season now.

I was also reading the Mowi Handbook 2021 last night which has some useful data for industry. This is the cost structure for Norway, which no doubt will be similar to Tassal that typically has had around a 40-45NOK cost basis per kilo. You can see from this that feed is the most substantial cost unsurprisingly, and the global price of fishmeal has been going up with grains. Nufarm released some trading results, and you can see the impact there.


The other thing I find REALLY interesting is the biomass around the world. You can see that obviously we are heading out of the northern hemisphere growing period, while we are heading into our traditional growing period. So biomass is shrinking, and won't expect that to change until at least August/September.



But what is REALLY REALLY interesting is that the forecast for supply growth is *ONLY* 1% for 2022. We're coming off the back of 2021 where Chile had dropped production substantially but Norway was alright - though prices initially were depressed because we had so much inventory from post-Covid. Now we're looking at 2022 with a modest 1% increase in supply compared to long term average of 6-7% CAGR. *IF* that eventuates, well, you can imagine that prices won't be coming back down that quickly even in August/September with the growing period. In fact, you may see prices remain elevated on long term average prices by ~20%, and that could hold all the way until August/September 2023 based on the growing seasons.