Thanks Bug. So playing around with the numbers, you can clearly...

Thanks Bug.

So playing around with the numbers, you can clearly see that export numbers are much higher in past couple of years.. but right now, they are tapering off as we have finished the harvest season and yet to get into the growing season. In fact, exports won't significant start up again until August/September.

	Volume (kg)	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	Weighted Average (ex 2022)
1	Jan	680,503	906,941	805,706	1,619,044	2,305,354	4,047,275	8%
2	Feb	309,579	262,385	102,782	618,385	1,219,218		3%
3	Mar	277,557	212,398	107,641	792,298	941,680		3%
4	Apr	294,015	150,641	137,545	1,021,658	829,643		3%
5	May	591,447	224,556	187,010	1,678,869	1,175,108		5%
6	Jun	938,044	277,314	324,368	1,500,196	1,734,516		6%
7	Jul	1,003,301	320,842	395,359	1,389,308	2,378,572		7%
8	Aug	938,839	760,555	498,573	1,989,893	2,783,872		9%
9	Sep	1,268,397	1,627,260	756,773	3,264,327	2,540,677		12%
10	Oct	1,537,345	1,344,806	1,241,730	2,875,141	3,096,148		13%
11	Nov	1,642,145	1,315,737	2,325,313	2,725,349	3,059,684		14%
12	Dec	2,643,397	1,930,217	3,335,259	3,218,655	3,998,714		19%
13	Total Export	12,124,569	9,333,652	10,218,059	22,693,123	26,063,186	4,047,275	100%

My supposition is that the peak prices we are seeing now is because *nobody* can meet the demand. Norway hasn't got to their harvest season yet, Chile production is down. Maybe just Fareroe islands with their all-year-round weather is suitable (bullish for BAKKA). Using just the China numbers as a proxy for all exports, you can see that China is around 50% (oops wrote 25%) of total exports, and the volume has dropped right off.



The inventories that we carried over from 2020 were exported, which is why those numbers of 22,000t in 2021 and 26,000t in 2022 were so much higher. However, the general trend is that our production has increased, and part of that is going to more exports. This is from ABARES forecast last year:



So to my mind, 75NOK as a base case remains about right - while historically it's been closer to 55NOK. And that 75NOK is the long term futures price from FishPool too. In terms of the sales mix, I reckon we should be exporting around 15,000t of the 40,000t we produce in the future. This is higher than the previous levels, and will help our margins as we shift more to wholesale and export. Not sure exactly, but my guess is that around half of the price increase has been eaten by higher input costs. So margins will be one to watch.