Thanks for sharing that research and your comments, and excellent insight @noomxx.
Any chance TGR represents step-wise increases around heavy capital investments? If that is the case, then perhaps some of this analysis is a bit wayward. TGR is essentially banking on heavy capex in salmon (previously) and prawns (currently) created long term earning streams at above market rates. I suppose that's more my approach to estimate future intrinsic values.
I don't put a lot of faith in the two analysts covering Tassals. Hard to use "consensus" when it's just splitting the middle of two. Essentially, their 'fair values' track share prices with a lag - while their models may look 3-5 years ahead, their forecasts are days and weeks based on current price +/- a bit. The Goldman Sachs estimate is based on total EBITDA being flat for another 2-3 years, no significant prawn contribution to EBITDA until FY23, and EBITDA/KG for salmon decreasing by 20% and still they have their fair price 10% above the current price.
Well at least it won't take much for Tassals to beat earnings consensus in FY22+. And their history to suggest that the two analysts have been pretty risk averse when it comes to their consensus. Since 2011, only once have they not beaten the consensus expectations (2016 by -6.8%), once they met consensus expectations (2015, 0%), and and eight times they have beaten consensus expectations by an AVERAGE of 27%.
Non-consensus and right.. that's our hope
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