teletubbies thursday, page-186

Deltra

I thought I explained myself pretty well.

The standard model is for a low here and a move up at least into Nov but more likely into April next year.

Just as last year's model didn't see the huge Aug/Oct rally to new highs, a model is just a model and no guarantees can be given.

Last year's model was for a July/Aug top with a good Nov decline and no serious advance till March. If you had sold in July and was buying this month you would be way in front, but not every twist and turn can be seen, at least not by me.

Even when following long term models it doesn't pay to fight the market unless you are happy to forget the vagaries of shorter term action.

I find a better approach is to have some sound longer term moving averages that may not capture the full extent of the move but at least keeps you from fighting the market should things not work out. This may involve lightening up at expected turning times or even exiting but waiting for the confirmation of the market before getting aggressive in the direction you expect.

That is just my approach and others may have more confidence in the markets direction and be prepared to back themselves.