Hi XSO Guys 'n Gals ... been awhile since I posted here but thought I would post these two charts ... of the
XJO(physical). ... for those monitoring our local index markets. I feel today's action may have confirmed that indeed the 7172.80 H is an important top for awhile.(Remember, that 7172.80 high was only 25pts from the ATH in Feb. last year and therefore could be a Double Top, that if fulfilled, could have disastrous consequences to the SP ...
BUT far too early to call that and at this stage very unlikely!).
Anyway, back to the near-term picture ...
Daily ... As P.B. has pointed out we had reached the top TL of a long-term uptrend channel again at the 7172.80H. My uptrend channel I have shown is a "Pitchfork" that goes back 12mths. The trading action, especially over the last 6 months, has been, well, laborious! Hence most Momentum Oscillators have hinted "over-bought" and showing -Ve diverging for some time. However, the action, in these oscillators(SSTO in particular) since the 7172.8H has been more aggressive to the downside. Indeed, the SSTO has broken below its LT support TL ... surely a warning that this pullback may be more significant. First potential support I guess would be near the 6768-46 being the measured move of that mini Head 'n Shoulders pattern I have shown. More on that on the Hourly chart to follow. However, its worth noting that today's action has broken its neckline and if it does reach its objective it would mean that the important Median Tyne of my Pitchfork would have also been broken therefore setting up a move down to its lower tyne .... somewhere near the 6520's(which is also near the horizontal support shown dotted).
View attachment 3200975
I include an
HOURLY Chart here, more to zoom-in on the short-term action ... and highlighting the mini Head 'n Shoulders Pattern in play that has been confirmed by today's action. We have broken thru the neckline, had an immediate back-test of the same and just now breaking below the important Feb. swing high ... @ 6938. Whilst I feel S/T support may be found soon for today and tomorrow I think it is clear any rallies should be sold into.
I am short, via BBOZ, actually when the XJO reached the 50% retrace of that initial leg down ... so only had to wear a 5% further rally against that position as the XJO retraced nearer to 55% (nice FIB number!)
Interesting to see how the market reacts to this sell-off over the next few days .... BUT, I'm thinking generally we are seeing a 'structural' shift in moneys!
View attachment 3200999
(20min delay)