macros - where are the trends gold chart - gold continues to churn. doesnt mean anything but you can see when it hit 1800 it found support. range was 2100 down to 1800. bounce to 1950 - midpoint of range and fail now as it approaches 1800 again? what can we say. not much. still churn but we can see a clear channel down now - from 2100 down
there are longer term horizontals for support. 1800 is next test if 1800 fails then we are looking to 1680 - which is what i said weeks ago as the place where IF it does tag it then i expect a decent bounce. same type of bounce we had at 1800 for a 50% recovery of previous range
but it is only IF 1800 fails. will see. ta cant say a lot. there are indicators but i prefer the count. it just helps work out what is happening and where to look for support and perhaps trades
But if we look for trends ! where are the up trends copper - what a channel up from $2. i called it then as the potential money maker for me a la ozl and others. now we are getting the spikes in the asx squids. longstanding projects mothballed for years and now looking like possibles
copper chart - what is next level? short term and mid term -- cannot even see resistance on those charts. it is a darvis break on those charts. once it broke previous resistance of $3.50 then it backtested and now we get that lovely darvis break. you have to go to the monthly to see next resistance. it is about here. we get that lovely break up and spike on the monthly and retail come in and buy the copper stocks and then the spike is 50.50 from here. it is a spike. i said the same thing with gold last year. a spike is a spike is a spike. all the work is getting the spike up on the monthly and then a really close review of all those macro related holdings. if they start churning but with high volume it means smart money is pulling out at expense of retail so close look this week. it can still get through and back test. time to reassess and rebuy then. there will be some who correct me and say buy now and they may well prove right. i am simply talking to those who followed the spike and got in early
then we have oil. again trend up. not a long term play for me. just a counter to fade in goldies which has worked. wpl is a dividend cash cow massively oversold and nice little period to let it rerate up. i have $28 to $30 as next serious resistance for it.
then we have other macros and then we have midcaps and then the specs - for another day
but i always post when i get excited as a way to calm myself down and remind myself to look at taking profit on the monthly spike. the only macro that kept on spiking on the monthly was gold last year. i counted 3 levels on my system last year before it started churning and now in fade. the retail who bought the spike will now be looking to sell and buy copper. who knows but we may just see some waterfalls down on goldies it is just may. silver is also green here with great potential on the chart and may just keep gold going. i saw last year as safe haven buying on gold. as things settle down we see vix and gold with money pulling out just here. real value of gold is when core inflation rises which is happening over next period of time. last year i said gold could now see 3 to 4 years before next run up which coincides with inflation timing
but again who knows. i dont care. if gold keeps churning - fine
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