i asked myself at the time how that would impact the asx.i saw the US under pressure at some point but not losing its own growth prospects.
it has ended up surprisingly well for the US, China and the ASX. once the gfc finished at least. we now have demand from india and all the developing countries to add in.
our balance of trade is picking up
the US rose from the gfc ashes through its balance of trade at the expense of smaller trading partners like australia and even china to some extent. i recall the trade wars and threats over the chinese govt adjusting the yuan to suit its own economy over the yanks.
we signed the stupid free trade deals for 99% of goods but the yanks easily outsmarted or outmuscled or just bulldozed oz and excluded our best farming produce like wheat and the us farmers remained protected by US tariffs at our expense.
where did that leave us. luckily our asian markets have picked up.
20 years later we now see our farmers benefiting from record prices led by chinese demand.
we have iron ore records. the baltic maintains its uptrend.
the end result is a very healthy trade position for australia
yes it will fluctuate and we will have waves down on the chart and it can all unravel but i found myself over the years scratching my head at the market. the us jobs market was picking up post gfc but the spx took awhile to catch on. these indicators do not change a trend instantly and they are just one factor. the bdi picked up but the asx kept falling. now we see the asx rising again. do i sell it when it is finally running.
i said a few months back i was long the asx and it remains green with $90 looming on the chart over time.
yes all charts are now high and a retrace is just as likely
i said when ozl took $20 and a retrace seemed likely that the worst case looked like $15. well now it is $25. where are the support levels if copper has another wave down.
that ozl chart is a thing of beauty.
copper is a genuine growth story and ozl is a genuine supplier making profit.
we also today see goldies like gor and deg flying here. it was only a week ago i saw deg holders complaining about its wave down to $1.20 or so. it does not take much to light the match on these.
i prefer the spx to the dow. it is the traders index. some like the russell as a leading indicator
but does something like the baltic lead iron ore and more importantly copper up and down or is it just a different way of charting real life economic activity and demand
the baltic is still making new highs. is the baltic a better indicator of demand for our produce.
i picked the run in gold from 1200 and picked the high in 2020. it was a hell of a run
i picked the copper run from $2 to its current high at $4.50
I also posted on each and every step for the spx from it holding at 1050.
the only macros yet to really run for me are uranium and silver and it is finally happening. do i sell now based on secondary indicators or follow the actual charts.
i find trying to second guess these moves almost counter productive. you tend to convince yourself to sell or buy and i found i lost a lot of profit by ignoring longer term charts
at the present time we can see copper demand just getting started. yes the price may drop for awhile but it depends on your time frame. if it drops then to what level. where will ozl and bhp finish?
iron ore had a real wave down over the years but it took off again and took rio to highs luckily I caught cap this year but i wish i had just sat on rio from its $32 low.
bhp is more than just copper so it will be interesting to see bhp if copper does fall here
it is the cycles that counts. when i focus too much on macros and decide to sell i end up losing on the gains on genuine blue chips like rio and mqg.
have a look at the xgd just here
it has solid support and a gradually accelerating uptrend
we have a higher low on the retrace and surely we will see a retest of the 2020 high on this run. no guarantee but i find second guessing the chart can be counterproductive. if we let it be then on average it is working out with run after run since the gfc. the market seems to get hold of something and keep going to well and truly over brought
I dont know why but these last 11 years have been game changing.
europe has not even come into the picture yet. demand is there.
so yes the US may be slowing down but as i see it they have had 11 years of growth and recovery at the expense of smaller countries like australia and even china to some extend. once their wages rise then our produce looks even more attractive and it may just be our turn in what really is turning into a supercycle.
back to the xgd if we do hit last years high at 9118 the smart move is to sell on that day. gold is very susceptible to double tops. if it gets through then it will backtest and a chance to rebuy. it may not happen but for me that is the purpose of these charts and my system of what i call the count.
the chart which really excites me remains the uranium chart. hit a 5 year high. failed at longer term multiyear resistance level on first go. significantly made a higher low and on track to have another go on this run
so in my simple speak i see
gold did its job last year tick and in for this second wave tick
copper done its job and just hit high and will see if backtest succeeds or not
uranium wave 1 a success - tick
wave down made a higher low and on its way to a second tilt - target is 39.29 to be precise
yes US had had a great recovery from gfc and a fall on spx will hit asx for awhile but focus just here is uranium gold and silver for me and a lazy eye on copper at this level
hi gypaetus nice to see you posting. it would have been interesting to see your views on the copper chart when it tagged $2 and all the buying volume really kicked in. i called it as a buy then - the traditional hammer down. the real buying volume was a year or so ago and it saw price run and run as retail picked up on it. retail is now selling. but will the big buyers kick back in here? unlikely. they will be off pushing the next big thing.
copper has performed well and one straight line up since then. yes a pause here. did we just see the final spike up on no volume to end this run. i call it churn and fade rather than an actual change of trend and happily wait for next direction. will be interested to see your calls on next leg. same with uranium and the other majors
i have had 11 years of fairly intense trading since the gfc opportunities and as i said earlier this year time for me to catch my breathe a bit.
good to see the enthusiasm of yourself Dave and the others for the twists and turns of the market from here
Dave i struggle to post charts which are a lot easier sometimes. have a look at gold and copper over the last 50 years and see how they tend to run together and get an idea of just how high we are over the last 15 years and how much further we have to go over the next few years and decide if we are in a supercycle. i find it gives me a lot of confidence for the next 10 years
cheers
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