Truly sorry to cloud your day PB, but we depressives gotta do what we gotta do. Sidenote: Years ago, I used to enjoy riding a pushy along the river to get to and from UQ from Rosalie. I love water views. It's great that you have that, at home and afoot.
Marketswise, I feel driven towards building a cash war chest until I perceive financial risks to have receded. I may have to be prudent for a while! Argh! I have a horrible track record for resisting the ever-arising parade of hot stock prospects for anything longer than a few days, so I'm not attempting this lightly.
Why, then?
I've had a simple-minded strategic view for decades that the ultimate resolution process for unsustainable global debt will be inflationary. That's because there are strong political imperatives to print debts away rather than default on them, and because the capacity of the so-called printing press is infinite. That's still my best guess for the endgame, if the world is still orderly then.
However, I've come to doubt recently my notion that inflation, supposedly on a tear, will dominate unchallenged in the short to medium term. I've adduced some factors for my doubts in Post #: 62967926, based on hazy understandings gleaned from commentators on sites like Wealthion.
For example, I'm trying to understand the significance of the Eurodollar futures curve being unequivocally inverted. The size of this offshore USD market is some unknown multiple of the onshore market size, and it's unregulated. Thus, it seems that nobody, even post 2008, regulates the quality of the collateral held on huge debts. So, what does the inversion suggest? That some of the smartest bankers in the world are concerned that they need to reduce risk on very large exposures? Will they therefore hoard USD? Is that why the USDX is so strong despite 9.1% inflation? Will USD credit be squeezed globally? That would be no fun for stock markets.
If this sort of complexity keeps growing I may have to have a diversified portfolio, the ultimate humiliation.
Disclaimer: I'm not a financial adviser, this isn't financial advice, I'm just another numpty, please do your own research.
Sidenote: Years ago, I used to enjoy riding a pushy along the river to get to and from UQ from Rosalie. I love water views. It's great that you have that, at home and afoot.
(20min delay)