I forget who it was but someone did some very neat risk...

I forget who it was but someone did some very neat risk management maths numbers here last week.

FWIW after last few days if I was a betting man (which of course we all are) I would say that there is something like a 30% chance of dow getting back to recent highs (about 1800 points scaled off ig chart) and 70% chance of it tumbling by a similar amount again from current levels (about 3600 points; taking it to about 21,000 .... 20,000 would be neater) in next little while.

By this logic;
reward = 0.3 x 1800 = 540
risk = 0.7 x 3600 = 2520

R/R = 540/2520 =0.2 on going long .... better off on Race 5 number 6 than going long here on those numbers.

happy for any critique?