I have never been invested in SPL for its condoms, agrochemicals or even BV treatment. To me, it begins and ends with the cancer treatment. Why do I believe?
1) everything we know so far in regards to this phase 1 trial has been positive. A "significant proportion of patients" have exhibited anti-cancer activity and efficacy signals. This means that their tumour is shrinking or has stopped growing. Presentations, shareholder updates indicate this has happened across at least 5/6 cancer types - if this goes up to 7/8 types for the topline data, we could be well on our way to an ORR of 40-50%. For terminally ill patients on their deathbed, who have gone through every treatment, an ORR of this number (without the typical DLTs) would change the game.
2) So far, dep-docetaxel has been safe enough for SPL to mention the possibility of combination trials with other therapies. This could be big.
3) AZ's deal is a vote of confidence, if not anything else. They will take their time, but it doesn't bother me
4) SPL have been developing the targeted dep-herceptin and dep-cab, both of which are under patent. To me it makes no sense to develop treatments that are patented unless you have a strong, strong belief that Roche and/or Sanofi will be willing to license the improved treatments. If you weren't sure of your treatments effectiveness, you would develop drugs that are off patent in order to not need the all clear from another company.
5) If SPL were to license all their current internal candidates off the back of a really good phase 1, a market cap of $260 million is tiny compared to what it could be.
Companies out there have valuations over $1bn without a single drug on the market, bringing in no money whatsoever. I do not think SPL needs to be bringing in revenues to grow. Would it help? Of course. Necessary? No.
SPL Price at posting:
72.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
