The Graphite Space: Musings and Lessons

Updated peer comparison tables, please let me know if I missed something:

Also thought I'd share some thoughts after reading some 'interesting' opinions on some graphite threads lately:

- The graphite market is NOT all about jumbo / super jumbo flake. Yes, they command higher prices but the global market for jumbo / super jumbo is tiny - ie. < 70k tonnes / year
- jumbo / super jumbo flake is used in aerospace and some expandable graphites
- li-ion battery (LIB) market uses smaller flake sizes (sub 180 microns)
- some larger flakes can be ground down to smaller, higher-purity flakes, for use in the LIB market
- however, this is unproven to date for use in batteries! In fact, only SYR and KNL have formal agreements for the use of spherical graphite, neither conducted their OWN research or employed the services of consultants - e.g. BatteryLimits
- Murubeni took 18 months to qualify SYR's graphite for spherical use, Sojitz took 200 tonnes of flake off KNL for testing in February and are still qualifying
- MNS, with no MOU's in place, has been conducting end-user-testing for a year. Still no offtakes
- LIB testing takes time, battery lifecycle testing can easily take up to 24 months or more... there is no way around this
- The LIB market is small, even by 2020 forecasts, Tesla's gigafactory will only require around 50k tpa of spherical - some very generous asx co's have touted the upper limit of 90k tpa (not gonna happen), add LG Chem, Panasonic and a German gigafactory
-The current flake market is less than 500k tpa global, mainly ex China. The number of explorers has ballooned so large that we could supply the market for over 300 years with the JORCs of current prospectors alone !!!
- Explorers do go through cycles, SYR, KNL and MNS are years ahead of the rest, absolutely not debatable. There are no shortcuts. Scoping / pre-feasibility feasibility will take +6 months, Bankable Feasibility Study will take another +9 months, securing offtakes for the Battery Market will then take a year minimum.
- As a KNL holder, don't debt fund ... there's another freakin year to your wait! Get some offtakes and try and equity raise.
- Chinese MOU's / Offtakes are not worth the paper they are written on - just ask TLG, HXG, MNS & TON among others



check dates above: SYR, KNL, MNS are at least 3 years more advanced than the others



*conversion time for MOU's to offtakes is +6 months for traditional uses in recarb and expandable markets, over a year for spherical.
MNS's 180k tpa of binding sales are questionable at best. They are already trying to supersede them with Western offtakes - 240k tpa is a long way to go!



*VRC PFS due Q4, BKT is from scoping study.
MNS capex is huge because it grinds down larger flake to high purity to sell to the battery market, chemical free. Meanwhile SYR and KNL have engaged spherical graphite partners to test and qualify their graphite for spherical battery manufacturing facilitie - they both have scoping studies from 2015
SYR quoted back in 15 January 2014 that end users had achieved 99.3% from simple flotation with no chemicals used. They didn't gloat about it and got on with the job of Murubeni qualifying it.
KNL has done the same, getting Sojitz to qualify their graphite for spherical, make no mistake, they could easily obtain +99% without the use of chemicals -see why here.



Sorry I hate to be so negative (a KNL holders curse) but the graphite market is opaque, small and slow moving. Some ludicrous comments and company presos are starting to agitate me ... GLTAH of graphite plays, be patient, learn as much as you can, take off your blinkers and rose-tinted glasses and keep an eye on the sector

*all IMHO, DYOR, chrs, r