The Orange Swan

Idle as a painted ship upon a painted ocean. Not a breath of trade winds, not a drop of liquidity, becalmed in the doldrums of market uncertainty.

And not just SFX for a change, the whole junior sector seems to be frozen in anticipation of El Trumpos latest negotiation tactics, trying to twist China's arm into submission. We've been watching this mini series two years now; our protagonist goes rouge, threatens Armageddon if he doesn't get his way, before clinching a last minute watered down agreement in a "tremendous win for Trump and America". The art of the deal (cough). What to do. Sell into the pull back and look a fool feeding savvy buying opportunists these tantrums provide, or sit tight and ignore the risk that this time is different?

Understandably we have a stand off. Nobody nervous enough to sell cheap, nobody brave enough to buy high, just an uncomfortable inactivity. Waiting is always the that hardest thing I found, blame on my ADD. The human mind is built for thought, programmed for action, fight or flight. We didn't get to the top of the food chain mindlessly munching grass 10 hours a day. As Jessie Livermore (worlds greatest ever trader) liked to say., "it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!". I agree, the same goes for SFX, one likes to think you can only fall far from great heights lol.

I've enough experience, got enough scars, to be nervous though. As my good mate likes to say, zebras on the edge of the herd get fat because the lush grass isn't trampled, but they're also most likely to be taken by a lion! I like to think although SFX is on clover it isn't on the very edge of the herd; low opex, high production, long life, strategic, bankable and permitted project. Maybe one or two beasts back then, but still, Bruce would be crazy, or sedated, if this trade war sabre rattling doesn't make him nervous. Even a good offer on the table now isn't worth the napkin it's written on if a trade war breaks out or planes fly into buildings. Try raising capital in any sort of war. Nobody's panicking, but everyone is rightly holding their breath this episode ends like the others. Nervous this could be one of those disastrous Black Swan events, or should I say, Orange Swan events lol

Good Luck