CORRECT, WE DO NOT KNOW THE FINER DETAILS OF THE PLL OFFTAKE.
We only know what PLL and SYA have released to the market, and even then, it is a little conflicting.
SYA/PLL BOA-
What we DO know is it will be 50% of NAL's production
It will be at US$900DAP
There is a volume waiver in place for preferential delivery to a lithium refining plant.
They need to agree on a lithium refining plant, including NAL and beyond
This part I do not fully comprehend.
SYAQ's board has 1 PLL member.
Even if they voted NO to a refining plant, PLL would be over ruled by the rest of the board, which then means the board votes in favour of a plant...
Boardroom mechanics are above my pay grade....
PLL/TESLA BOA-
September 28, 2020
5+5 year fixed price- not disclosed, circa $400-800, as that was the market rate at the time
Benchmark minerals, which PLL's Tesla BOA was tied to- May 2020 carbonate was 5000, hydroxide 7200 and sc6 400!!!
One-third of Piedmont’s planned SC6 production of 160,000 tonnes per annum for the initial five-year term as well as anadditional quantity to be delivered at Tesla’s option. So, possibly all of their NAL output?? At maximun $800/t, but probably closer to 600???
The Agreement is conditional upon Tesla and Piedmont agreeing to a start date for spodumene concentrate deliveries betweenJuly 2022 and July 2023based on the development schedules of both parties.
Tesla want product NOW, PLL is not even close to being ready, except for NAL.
Please keep in mind, basically without exception, ALL these early offtakes contain extremely low SC6 prices, reflective of the market from 2020 up to early 2021, when they started to climb.
Locking in sales was key, and even with these outdated metrics, the revenue was still acceptable.
The PLL/SYA deal, although still not fully disclosed to the shareholders, does give us a price and financial structure to make our own calculations.
The PLL/Tesla deal unfortunately does not. The only clue to the per tonne pricing is-
Piedmont confirms that all material assumptions underpinning the results of its previously announced integrated scoping study (refer ASX announcement dated May 26, 2020) continue to apply and have not materially changed, including Benchmark Mineral Intelligence pricing and tonnes per annum assumptions.
Benchmark minerals pricing in May 2020 was US$400/tonne.
So,for Keith to lock in a deal between the minnow Piedmont and the almighty Tesla, back in early 2020, would have required some promises. To get Tesla on the books at such an early stage was arguably THE COMPANY MAKER for PLL and certainly put them on the map
So, a big part of the puzzle for PLL is the grey area surrounding the finer details of their offtake to Tesla. And this follows on from my post yesterday, which detailed a hypothetical restructure of these offtakes, which could benefit Sayona, Piedmont and Tesla.
For the calculations below, I have given PLL the benefit of the doubt and priced it at 800, although the reality is it could be half that.
In a full year of production, they may make US$101million or $584million, depending on the Tesla BOA.
AND JUST LIKE PLL WILL HOLD US TO THE 900/T, YOU CAN BE DAMN SURE TESLA WILL HOLD PLL TO THE 4-800/T, FROM AS SOON AS NAL STARTS UP.
Now, let me be clear.
I like PLL and the way they market themselves.
I want PLL to succeed, in fact I still own a small parcel.
Their success ensures they can still pay the bills at SYAQ
I see Keith as a great salesman and a good fit for Sayona. He's not a miner and doesn't fully understand a mine going from concept to production.If he did, his timelines would be completely different.
Brett is a miner...sales/lobbying/wall street manoeuvring are just not him....
Keith is a money man/salesman, and wall street stalwart.
Together, they are a great fit and I see the synergies they bring to SYAQ as formidable.
As Ord mentioned, we have the resource and the processing facility, the substance, the V8 under the hood.
PLL has grand plans, plenty of money, masters of spin,key connections on wall street and a very upbeat image in the USA.
They are counting on their rhetoric, lobbying and connections to accelerate funding and permitting.
But for the moment, they have NAL and Ghana, which is now, due to the IRA, heavily out of favour.
So basically...NAL.
When does Tesla want their spod??? Yesterday, Now, tomorrow....July 2022-July 2023..FULLSTOP.
(I am struggling to get more info on their deal, so I apologise if I have missed the mark here.)
We are fully funded and 95% permitted,which has progressed from 90%, with an active mine and an upgraded concentration plant 94% built. No issues with cash, personnel, green power, water etc..etc...
You can't buy this advanced penetration into this deficit ridden market currently, unless you take over an existing mine. Just as we have, and just as Nemaska has at James Bay.
And he who controls the resource, IS IN CONTROL.
So I favour SYA.....And what we can earn.....And the potential...
....SC6, LiOH, LCA, Gold, Graphite, rare earths. ALL in Tier 1 jurisdictions and multiple mine locations, NAL, Authier, Tansim, Pilbara and including the rapidly advancing Moblan and James Bay developments...
AND A REVENUE STREAM FROM NEXT YEAR.
And I have had a look at the PLL threads from time to time, and do those guys give us a bollocking.
I would categorise it is blatant, Derrogatory, Condescending, Disrespect, toward the Sayona faithful.
Bomber visits from time to time to throw his 2c in....meanwhile I have never posted on the PLL forum.
MY FOCUS IS OUR EXECUTION,WHAT WE WILL EARN AND OUR POTENTIAL TO VALUE ADD.
I have previously seen this diagram around the traps.
I have added the figures to reflect what we will probably see going into production next year, and added PLL's production costs, while correcting our own.. SC6 ONLY....
It is favourable for both partners in SYAQ.
PLL's EBITDA will depend on the Tesla deal.
If that is enforced, they will make just over $US100million.A loss on the deal, but propped up by their share of NAL's revenue.
If Keith somehow outsmarts Elon...outsmarts the richest man alive(yeah.. right).....and they can defer the deal, then they stand to make US$584million.
SYA on the other hand, for sc6 production should make around US$435 million, which includes the commitment to PLL.
Still very acceptable and with the possibility of being short lived, say under 2 years, if they develop the NAL carbonate plant by 2024 and preferentially deliver ALL spod to the refining plant.
Even if somehow PLL don't agree, and Sayona deliver only their 115kt sc6 to the LCA plant, revenues could be
Total 30kt LCA production
SYA 50%
15ktLCA x 70k LCAspot= 1,050,000,000 less costs.
SC6 Costs 576/tonne sc6 production= 576x 115= 66,240,000+
LCA Costs 15kt x 5000 LCA conversion = 75,000,000
1050000000-( 66,240,000+75,000,000)
105000000- 141240000= US$908,760,000 EBITDA FOR OUR OUTPUT ONLY.
NEARLY A BILLION/PA TO MINE/CONVERT 15KT SPOD TO LCA...
You can double that if PLL get on board, then allocate them 25% of the profit.
But, with Elon, recognising the BIG money is in refining, and rapidly advancing his refining plans, something tells me he will cling onto PLL's spodumene deal for dear life...........and convert it himself.....
So, IMHO, we are in a good place.
Our plans are being executed to the proposed timeline and are below budget!
Who can state that in this climate of inflation, logistical nightmares and cost blow outs at every level of the value chain? NOT-MANY.....if any at all...worldwide......
With the PLL monkey on our back/not on our back, it really doesn't matter.
With only our half of NAL's output, we make nearly, HALF A BILLION IN SC6 SALES or if we refine, NEARLY ONE BILLION.
WE STILL REALISE HUGE REVENUES AND PROFIT, EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM.
In the mid to long term, we have fully owned MOBLAN/James Bay coming online 2025-2027,
SC6 and refining LiOH and our Pilbara tenements, possibly producing anything from gold to graphite, from lithium to
rare earths....
SB drew comparisons with FMG. We are not quite there yet......but the potential, the value.....is irrefutable.
That is the TRUE VALUE OF SAYONA.
Good luck everyone.
(20min delay)
