the untold story, page-2

Malgray, I think the answer is quite simple.

In the eyes of the pharmaceutical industry, Biotron is not far enough along the road of trialling to be considered sufficiently risk free. You and I may have a greater appetite for risk but the industry has seen too many pitfalls and drug disasters along the way to jump in yet.

Consider this. We have recently seen a good deal of corporate activity in the HCV area with companies being taken over by larger Pharmaceuticals for massive sums. Posters here on HC have built huge edifices of fantasy out of imaginary dollars of Biotron's value. These companies have developed drugs which, while they show significantly enhanced efficacy in Hep C, are still just members of existing and well understood classes of drugs. BIT 225 on the other hand, is a new class of drug and not much is known about it. Will it have some unpredicted long-term toxicity, is it fully efficacious over the long-term. Will there be any untoward drug interactions. etc etc. This all represents uncertainty to any prospective company looking to move in our little start up (or should it be upstart?!). Such uncertainty is much less with a kniwn class of drug such as a protease or polymerase inhibitor.

Secondly, it's not until a drug gets into and passes through phases IIb/III that it becomes fully de-risked. While it is less common in phase III, I have seen a drug used to treat stroke (admittedly a difficult condition to evaluate and treat)fall at that last hurdle.

So, the bottom line here seems to be that Big Pharma is still uncomfortable with the risks associated with BIT225. It looks like we will have to carry that risk for a little longer. Meanwhile, our risk declines and potential profits increase. That's the upside!