..this is not a joke everyone!!!, page-15

re: generic tamiflu Good luck. It will take years, cannot be sold in any jurisdiction where it is currently protected and will greatly add to overall demand. It will probaby also be Tamiflu that is copied because of perceived advantages in being a pill. Either way, GSK will be selling as much as they can possibly produce for the next several years (5 or more) just to satisfy government stockpile orders even after ramping up production to over 100 million courses pa. Roche is ramping up Tamiflu production 8-fold to attempt to met demand. No amount of generics will impact on royalties this side of 2013 when the patent runs out because demand will exceed supply anyway in countries where no generics will be sold.

By then it will all be LANI anyway and why would BTA and Sankyo even need a marketing partner for LANI? Govt stockpile orders will take a massive proportion of supply. You would only need a GSK or Roche to retail to pharmacies but if LANI is a one shot treatment it should be administered by your GP so distribution networks could be greatly simplified. That way BTA could be looking at nearly 50% of LANI income. When that occurs the market cap may well exceed CSL and as early as 2008/9. However, there are still a few ifs. Upside risk greater than downside risk so suits me at present.