can settle for somewhere mid way.......thanks for sharing

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28/05/22

11:07

Post #: 61677020
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Originally posted by Apotheosis: ↑

What are people's thoughts on these cashflow figures?

Key asssumptions, worst case scenario:
6.0% margin after FY2022 - historically 7.0%
2.8% lost / bad debts - most recent FY2022Q2 update had 2.8% - historically closer to 2%)
5.0% interest rate on borrowings (that is 2.2% higher interest rates than FY2021, say 9 rate rises this year)
TTV and Receiveables scale at similar rates in FY2022 and FY2023, then decay as expansion markets mature
SOI increases on avg 5% a year, adding 160m shares in 4 years, because why not
No other major acquisitions or structural changes
Share based employee benefits continue at similar CASH level and increase with headcount, at around $250m/year
No adjustment for additional revenue streams or new markets such as Zip Business
Banking fees remain the same
No major change in admin / depreciation / taxation witchcraft etc

Couple of years of the same, profit in FY2025, then explosive returns with further scaling. Net debt reducing in a few years. Kind of like your spec miner applying for a new mining licence, not so bad.

Now for another scenario: as above but
6.9% margin through FY2022 and following, similar to historical averages, and possible with the right customer base, partnerships / market positions
2.2% lost / bad debts, closer in line with historical averages
4% interest rate on borrowings over next 4 years, still 1.2% above FY2021

In this best case scenario:
Profitable in FY2024
In five years, no net debt and ~$60 price target

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can settle for somewhere mid way.......thanks for sharing
ZIP Price at posting: 85.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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