TIE share price prediction

When trying to figure out what the TIE share price should be I think that the best comparison is ASX:WAF.

Once TIE is in production -

• Both companies will be producing about the same amount of gold. +/- 10%.
• Both companies have about the same number of shares. +/- 10%.
• However WAF's production costs (AISC) are over $USD1,100 per oz, where as TIE's are $USD650 in the first year, rising to $USD840 after that.
• Institutions hate political instability. Ivory Coast vs. Burkina Faso, I know which of those two countries I would rather be investing in.

WAF's price bounces around a bit, but over a 12 month period it averages about $1.20.

Assuming a gold price of $USD1,700 per oz then TIE makes a profit per oz of $USD1,050 (in the first year) and WAF makes $USD600 per oz.

So we take the WAF share price and multiply it by 1050/600, to reflect the lower costs. $1.20 * 1050/600 = $2.10.

Then add 15% due to the political stability component. $2.10 * 1.15 = $2.40.

Maybe reduce the share price by 20% because after the first year it is not so profitable, then the share price should be $1.90.

This is a bit of a back of the envelope calculation but when I get more detailed I still come up with approximately the same number.

I would expect the share price to be about $1.90 once TIE has about 6 months production under it's belt, so June/July 2023..

Have I got this right? Am I missing something here? Again, this is a simplistic analysis but a reasonable one, I think.

So I have to ask the question, who are these people selling shares for $0.58? Why would someone do that? I don't get it.