time for a serious valuation and target

This is such a good outcome and congratulations to all holders - and again a big thankyou to all of the serious posters who have been helpful in establish the quality of this company and management.

So the way i see it we have two scenarios that can play out here that were well referenced in both previous announcements and posts.

Scenario 1 - the US expansion is via deal with Alcoa
Scenario 2 - the US expanison is via a deal with another US aluminium company.

What is the market currently pricing at $1.21?
We need to understand possibly what is priced at 1.21 so we can reasonably forecast what this expansion is valued at and then add it. A simple way to look at this I think is to only assume the market is focused on Aluminium and consider all other assets as future bonus. With the Aussie Ops making 7.1m NPAT (8.6EBITDA) a conservative value for this business would be around 60m or 60c/shares. That leaves us looking to assign 60c worth of value to growth projects. Unequivically, the market is focused on this coming from an Alcoa deal, so in this case - 60c is being assigned to this future deal. In short 1.21 is being made up of 60c for Aussi ops + 60c for possible Alcoa Deal (worth over 3 bucks for 2 plants).

Scenario 1 possibility.
If the US expansion is delivered via a deal with Alcoa then the market will start to de risk the future probability of this project and also start to speculate on future projects of rollout across US. If they are willing to pay for 60c worth of value with no agreement in place then i would assume at least an additional 80c will be assigned immediately with a Head of Agreement or MOU being signed. Share price target = $2. But what if the MOU of HOA is signed for 2 plants and then there is guidance given for future expansion - then this future expansion will be bought at a discount just like the 60c payed up till now for the Alcoa expansion. So MOU + guidance for more plants/landfill process we could be looking at 2.50 -
3.00

Scenario 2 possibility.
If the US expansion is delivered via a deal with another US company then this is an even better outcome as the market has no value attributable to this outcome. Very quickly, as we dont have much time to work out our target spots, we could say that the 60c for Aussie business remain, the 60c for the Alcoa future expanison remain, and then add a DCF for the new deal needs to be added to the current Share Price. Depending on the size of the plant/company in this example will depend on the size of the vertical shift required. If we assume it is for the size of one of the Alcoa plants then we are looking at well over $2.50

The beauty about this situation is that it demonstrates that the technology is for the industry and not for a player. it can be rolled out etcetc.

Important point here is that whatever US expansion is means company progress and massive growth in future earnings. Under these scenarios you could probably keep a buy on this up to 2 bucks and then depending on the guidance given - whether that be regionally or gloablly will depend on where you want to adjust.

Either way - this is massive and company changing.

Good luck all in the coming days but as a former poster said

Sitting down = check
Seatbelt attached = check
Helmet = check

Ready for lift off!