I've been watching these threads but not posting, as I'm sure what I have to say won't be popular, but TNT does have a very interesting situation and no one is discussing the realities we're seeing, so I figure I might as well.
You know there are problems when in the chart thread no one is discussing the chart and they are instead posting about it being more important to focus on their golf swing (seriously, red flag if you're talking like that about an investment) or that it's best not to watch closely or that you're not worried if you lose money, etc etc. Deep down we all know that if everyone is saying these things they're expecting the price to fall, because we all know if we're being honest that if we genuinely expect the price to rise, holders talk about excitement and actually post about TA in the chart thread, etc. It was particularly concerning to see Rob's post, and honestly, if you find yourself flipping out and throwing an angry tantrum, you should have a good, honest look at your investment. To respond to that post, management has on the whole done a great job of PR with their interviews etc, they put out announcements, the quarterly showing everything clearly was less than a month ago and the market is reacting to the figures, not to a lack of the company data being available. They are being relatively quiet by their own standards at this time because honestly, the figures just aren't going to look good for the next two, maybe three quarterlies, they didn't look good in the last one, so this isn't a good time to be shouting from the rooftop. They did a really good job of managing an ugly time by sneaking a hint about revenue into an announcement where it didn't really belong; if they hadn't, the price would have dropped below 10c, and there's very little support below that level.
Taking a look at the big picture, here's the daily chart going back about a year:
Obviously this is just ugly, there's no way to sugar coat it. The trend is clearly down, and when the big, long-term picture is like this, you can only blame the fundamentals. Everyone has hated me all along for saying this is what would happen, sometimes even blaming me for it personally (!!!), but take an honest look at what happened over that time and tell me I was wrong. That's a very consistent picture.
Looking at the more recent data, here's the daily going back five months. Just focussing on the TA (this is the chart thread after all)...
It's very bearish. Even ignoring the long term trend, we have a double top and a tweezer top. These both indicate (according to textbook TA) that we should retest 10c. I saw kunkba predict this, but with zero explanation. Not sure if he just wanted to state the obvious without the investment of time in explaining why, or didn't want to deal with the backlash, but he's right.
Given the lacklustre fundamentals we can expect in the short to medium term (even if you have full faith in the very long term picture, if we're being honest, we just have to admit that the next few months are not going to look pretty, and that's what the market will respond to) and the short term TA as in the above paragraph and the long term TA as in the first chart, it seems likely that 10c will fail when tested. The positives I see are long term support at 10c, and the strong market depth down to 10c. I'm fairly sure 10c will be tested, but it will take some selling to get there, and buyers just might take up enough of the shares being dumped to exhaust supply and prevent 10c from failing. If 10c does fail... well, technically there is very little support below it and if you look at the depth there is very little below it, so it will get very nasty.
Happy to hear any reasonable attempt at shooting down anything I've said here, and if you make valid points and show that I'm wrong I'll be the first to thank you, or if you make a reasonable case but I still disagree I'll respect your views, but if anyone wants to throw pointless abuse I'll ask you not to, and if you feel the urge to talk about the importance of practising golf and ignoring the TA/charts, or blaming a lack of announcements, I suggest you have an honest look in the mirror and think about it. If you want to discuss the long term fundamentals that's all fine and wonderful, but this is the TA thread and a TA post and thus looking at the next few weeks/months, not years, so by all means post about it in the relevant thread (and I'm not so bearish about the long term fundamentals of the company and will post more positively about that), but it's not relevant to this post or thread. If you feel the urge to post about how much you don't care at all about technicals because you are in it for the long term, consider the fact that this clearly indicates you expect it is most likely that in the short term prices will indeed go down, and the fact that posting about not caring is ironically comical and transparently dishonest, as is taking the time to post that you don't have time to read my post, bonus points for including references to the things I said in the post in such posts - I'm mainly here for the TNT analysis and story, but comedy and glimpses into human psychology are a bonus on the side.
TNT Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
