Trump MASSIVE Win Coming, page-121

Thanks for elaborating Convivial. I think Virginia and Colorado might be a bit of a stretch and I doubt all the battleground states will go to Trump (or Biden for that matter). Will probably be a mix for the two. Florida is the big one for Trump in particular.

Regarding polls, I'm more interested in any trends they are showing as opposed to who they show is winning. For example there's polls that have Biden winning by 5 points in Texas which is bs. But, in a lot of the battleground states the polls show big swings away from Trump in his key demographics such as whites, men, 45-64, 65+, and women shifting even further away from him. This is the case across dozens of polls in most of the battleground states when compared to 2016. There's some states where polls have Biden in front but the swings I just mentioned aren't there so the likes of North Carolina for example imo will stay red. Georgia is another one. Arizona and Ohio as well probably (I haven't had a good look for the last three weeks though so it may have changed somewhat).

Generally speaking, if Trump gets within say three or four points in the polls come the end of October then he's a great shout to win. This would have him within the margin of error and as you point it could counter the 'bias' in the polls over the last few years. Another thing that is worth mentioning is a Republican pollster called Trafalgar Group. Their claim to fame is they correctly predicted that in 2016 Trump would win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They got something right in 2018 as well that others didn't (Florida to go red from memory). Their current polls have Trump and Biden level in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Florida unlike the other pollsters which have Biden well in front. So if Trump gets a bounce in the polls overall (which he will imo), Trafalgar's polls will have Trump in front in these states.

Another thing that I'm cautious of is voter turnout. In 2016 Trump got less votes than Romney in 2012 and won. With covid this may again be the case which would work to Trump's advantage imo. I think that's the point you're making regarding independents and Sanders voters motivation to vote. Then there's the mail-in-voting issues which will cause plenty of debate and quite a few law suits I imagine, which raises more question marks on how the election will go.

A lot of your arguments are opinion based which is fine, but there's others who will see things differently to you. Trump is a divisive personality and while he appeals to many, there is many others who despise him. So the question is how many Dems and independents will be motivated to vote against Trump as opposed to voting for Biden? The Dems imo have not learnt a lesson from 2016 and if they lose this election it's their own doing. With the inept American response to covid-19, economic repercussions, and many other divisive things Trump has done, this election should be a gift for the Dems but imo they can still botch it from here on and for starters Biden is an exceptionally uninspiring candidate.

What are your thoughts on the House elections in 2018? I mean there was a strong move toward the Dems where they gained 41 seats, their largest gain since 1974 post Nixon. So one could argue that the House elections were a reaction to Trump's Presidency which doesn't bode well for the Republicans? So your prediction would then imply that this swing will be reversed.