Excellent food for thought. I have assumed in my crude...

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billybongo

27,328 Posts.

26/10/21

07:28

Post #: 57065243
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Originally posted by albatrosss ↑

lots of numbers there. Appriciate your efforts.
The problem or should i say , the good problem with your numbers are.
1) 2020 & 2021 stats are worlds apart.
In 2020 in Australia, especially during the first months of the virus, they were only testing people with a FEW of the symptoms that is now excepted as covid symptoms. And if you had a mirriad of other symtoms or no symptoms , you were not tested.
( reason was , not enough testing kits)
2) the aged care disaster that resulted in 600+ deaths in Victoria in just a few aged care facilities skews the numbers immensely.
3) By the later part of 2020, even though vaccination rates were insignificant, the % figures that i have now come to accept started to be the norm. ( many reasons for this , vaccinations were a small part of it at that point)
4) there is no denying that 86 year olds and above make up 50% of the total fatalities. They have done from the start of the pandemic. They do that now.
And they have done that not only in Australia but all over the world. And after realising this about the virus.
Stringent protection systems and protocols were introduced. Including vaccinations and many others.
( what went on in Victorias aged care disaster, should be looked into more thoroughly at some point)

So those numbers you are using are not really relevant because they are massively skewing the figures in terms of not including people who had the virus but were not tested or were asymptomatic especially in the early months of 2020. Upto around July. And even so for months into 2021. ( testing numbers have only been massive since Delta arrived).

The figures i have now come to accept have been factual for all of 2021.
ie 3.5 - 5% of positive cases get hospitalized
Around 1 out of every 5-6 people who gets hospitalised end up in ICU.
And somewhere between 20-25% who end up in ICU dont make it out alive.
The reasons are probably a combination of
Looking after and out for the real elderly ( over 80 year olds) including vaccinations ( they were first ti get vaccinated), hygene habits, locking themselves or they are being 'locked' away by family, and forced lockdowns and using treatments that werent available early on during the virus.

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Excellent food for thought.

I have assumed in my crude calculations not one person was vaccinated.

2021 hospitalisation figures would skewed by the vaccine introduction so IMO its not correct to assume if the virus was let rip last year and into early 2021 we would have the equivalent this years hospitalisation-intensive care -death ratios.
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