"Several companies are now advancing clinical programs in...

"Several companies are now advancing clinical programs in mRNA-based flu vaccines, notably 1) Moderna (Ph1/2 initiated (dosed) in July), 2) Pfizer/BioNTech (Ph1 to start in 3Q21), 3) Sanofi/Translate Bio (Ph1 initiated in June) and 4)
GSK/Curevac (pre-clinical). Under a best case scenario, it is possible a monovalent flu vaccine can enter the market in 2023, and a combination vaccine in 2024+. Whilst mRNA development programs are still early-stage, it is notable that the large
incumbent flu vaccine suppliers are each now advancing their own efforts in this $6bn+ global market (GSe):

1) Sanofi (48% share of CY20 influenza vaccine market), partnered with Translate Bio, progressed its first mRNA candidate into Ph1 trials
last month, and has just committed €400m of annual investment into a new mRNA Centre of Excellence (from which it expects to produce 6+ clinical candidates by 2025E);

2) GSK (16% share), partnered with CureVac, have a 2nd-generation
LNP/mRNA vaccine candidate that has demonstrated strong/durable immunogenicity in pre-clinical studies;

3) CSL (29% share) is notable as the only
major incumbent flu vaccine supplier without tangible information about its own mRNA program (currently ‘pre-clinical’ but with no further detail). If mRNA-based approaches can fulfill their potential in seasonal influenza, as appears increasingly
possible, then CSL may need to develop/license its own viable mRNA program more quickly in order to mitigate the potential threat to its vaccine business ($1.6bn Revenues, 16% of Group; $430m EBIT, 14% of Group in FY21E)."


Yes it is a risk, Goldman put out an extensive report recently (available on Commsec). Essentially in thier view, new technologies for Flu vaccines could mean shorter lead times to develop a vaccine (a key factor in flux vax industry) and increased effectiveness.

There are several players at various stages, CSL is deemed at the back of the pack. Duel Covid and Flu shots is also a future consideration. CSL will probably need a duel product to be competitive, and mRNA flu could be on the market it two years which does not give CSL much time if it wants to stay at the forefront of Flu vaccines.

I would imagine that given newer tech will be more expensive there might be lenghty transition and it won't render current production useless, still longer term it looks like mRNA will completely disrupt the Flu vax industry for the better.