Value of SPL

How much is SPL worth? My views might be nonsense - keen to hear other views. I really can't be bothered trying to be super accurate, and am not able to match a professional pharma industry analyst anyway.

Seems we finally are nearing a time when licensing deals are likely. What has been provided is very strong. These are a separate product to Viraleeze and Fleurstat - we roll the dice again. Management are very poor at evaluating their sphere of competence - hence the opportunity is even starker ATM.

Market Cap 188m. Sales of Jevtana (Cabaz) are E80m per quarter off patent. Sanofi - because I am looking at them -  getting 38% EBITDA margins.

At this pessimistic stage, the market might be evaluating these trials using stats for other oncological trials. But I would say our odds are far higher with already successful drugs being adapted, and we have seen evidence of far greater safety already.

I reckon, excluding AZ which is novel - not knocking their molecule, we have better than 55.7% odds of passing phase 2, and greater than 63.6% odds of getting approved from initiation of ph 3, which is odds of over 35%. 3 drugs in clinical trials at these odds. Each drug potentially earning $400m gross margin or more. Nearly hilarious how badly management have done at presenting this business to shareholders - but that doesn't mean that the value is the same as the share price.

I reckon we are discounting back from about a $US4b drug value if one conjugate gets to market. Give it, say, 7 years at about 20% per annum discount rate, then knock of 50% for the partnering, and we are worth about $US400m market cap ($AU1.46 ps) assuming one DEP drug with marketing approval IMO. If we have a successful ph2, then obviously the odds climb substantially and each ph2 success adds another $US250m approx to our market cap at 59% odds of ph3 success. And at $1.46 there is no value for anything else including AZ, Fleurstat and Viraleeze and other potential licenses etc in these numbers.

Personally I think the odds are higher - but I could be deluded. If the safety figures are as good as I suspect, and efficacy at least matches the original (I suspect higher safety = higher dosage optionality for higher efficacy at similar safety, and raises the drug value a bit more).

https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/11/clinical-trial-success-rates-phase-and-therapeutic-area-14845

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