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Troydt

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30/08/23

18:52

Post #: 69645484
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Originally posted by dbd25: ↑

One the EPA is done and approved, TMT management are going to seek finance, and they'll need ~$700m capex, or probably a bit more due to rising costs everywhere (note recent cost blowouts for LTR, LYC, CHN). They'll need to use a higher V price than current spot, to make the project finances look attractive, and the financiers will see that as a hopeful assumption. After all, everyone thought V prices were on track to increase this year. I think the financiers will just tell TMT to come back when the V price rises to a long term average, or better. Yes, TMT's Opex will be lowest quartile, but its the big capex that is the problem, pulling down the NPV and IRR. I see this project being put on ice. In the long term, the inability for this and other V developers to build mines may create a V shortage, especially if VRFB demand grows, so we may see V price spikes again, like in 2018.

All IMHO, DYOR

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you make some good points but I don’t think the V market can afford to ice the project and niether can Australia.

some risk has to be taken otherwise supply chains around the world would fail. It’s not so much V in general but the high purity V205 is key for specialist markets including aerospace and batteries.

Everyone already knows this it will be who will blink first.

Same with Copper / Tin etc

TMT Price at posting: 25.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Vanadium price advances, page-338

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