Tobyjack thanks for trying to answer my questions. Guessing...

Tobyjack thanks for trying to answer my questions. Guessing competitions RE sp are not really my thing either, to many variables and unknowns, however I do like to try and form a view of fair value when it comes to things related to trying to make money.


For me current fair value on SYR depends mostly on product mix and off take, risk associated with infrastructure, power and political.


My base case is 250k tonnes pa for aluminium and steel industries, more or less as per the current MOUs. FOB cost of $250/t and selling for $750/t. So EBITA of $125 mil pa and NPAT of $90 million pa after ~2 years, post payback. So to buy the company now for $700 mil or ~$4 per share, I would need to invest a further $200 mill for capex which would give me a ~10% pa ROI. The upside for more tonnes, high grade/high value material and vanadium equals or out weighs the risks IMO. So my current fair value is around $4 per share, whats yours?