It’s is stupid to bet on oncology drug development as a sure...

It’s is stupid to bet on oncology drug development as a sure thing. It like saying gold mine could be worth 2.4b when if no gold it could also be worth 0. Oncology Drugs have low low channe of getting to market.

”only 3.4 percent of all cancer drug development programs from 2000 to 2015 moved from phase 1 to regulatory approval, despite the fact that oncology accounted for 42 percent of all drug development programs in that dataset.”

MIT analysis: https://alo.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/DIAGlobalForum20190501_OncologyPoS_Full.pdf?back=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2Fsearch%3Fclient%3Dsafari%26as_qdr%3Dall%26as_occt%3Dany%26safe%3Dactive%26as_q%3Dphase+1+to+drug+approval+rate+for+oncology+drugs%26channel%3Daplab%26source%3Da-app1%26hl%3Den

Astra drug is bcl2 family and abbvie bcl2 drug venclaxta now sells a bit under 2b/y and first approved in 2016. so do Spl have huge royalty rate to earn 2.4b over patent life with competing product now 15years left. Not forget royalty usually on net so after all Astra costs taken out. Do they says if spl get single or double digit royalty?