Well I suppose that is why there are buyers and sellers. I dont...

Well I suppose that is why there are buyers and sellers. I dont agree with your thoughts for the following reasons.

1. Interest - The capital only kicked in for half a year so I expect the $17m saving to reach more like $25m to $27m in 2013. In addition they will pay less on the convertible note so that's another $6million saving plus the accelerated amortisation on the notes of $16.5m and the establishment costs of former debt facilities of $17.2m. all in all that suggests that interest in 2013 should drop from $185.9m to $138m - that's $47m on its own.

2. They had a lot of fixed asset acquisitions that I think have come to an end - I wish they would define the new plant and equipment under two headings - Stay in business and development. I have asked but all I got was a comment that said it should slow dramatically after the rationalisation and restructure which was coming to an end. So say we only save half this year. So new assets $90m and depreciation of $188m that nets us $98m cash next year.

3. Other benefits that are still only coming this year. I did get the impression that some were on their way.

So adding that to the profit expected of say $45m (remember we did not get that as we had the legal settlement this year.) add the savings in interest of $47m and the benefit of a slowing investment in assets of $90m to make the total cash flow from assets $98m ( depreciation less acquisitions)- That means my model generates $190m cash flow to repay debt. With $190m to repay in a year that compounds to a 5 year total repayment.

If your read Warburg Pincus they classify TPI as a recapitalisation investment. I dont think they will sell too much - Its the size that does bode well for the future.

I also know that private equity want all the bad news out of the way. This year I think it was the last hence the rights issue , the restructure of the dent and the repurchase of the bulk of the cnotes. Personally I think added to that the legal settlement this result was the one that they just accept and then the make the business sweat from now. I dont mind getting rid of COO and getting an MD.

All makes sense so I am very happy and even prepared to accumulate @ up to 90 cents. I do think over the next 4 years the business gets into the sweet spot again - manufacturing gone and debt reducing - It will double to $1.80 to $2.00 in 4 to 5 years. I would be very happy with that. I would hope they dont sell off the NZ or the Cleanaway that would be the bulk of the business and time is the needed here.

All my opinion.