What if China ban Australia Wine?, page-2

Hi @franklucky - if China does this to TWE - they (and any other companies that have invested their production/sales purely with only China in mind) as their target market they frankly deserve it. While China has been a great buyer of our products to date, everyone shouldn't have lost sight of the fact they are a Dictatorship that is ultimately only there for themselves and are happy to shaft anyone who won't support them. The best defense against this for companies to ensure a wider customer base (this doesn't mean then target only India like our dear PM is currently trying to do). Australian companies need to target wider markets across the globe instead of just trying to dump all their goods in one or two markets (ie don't put all your eggs in one basket).

Hopefully with all the drastic misbehaviour China is now showing, Australian companies will be open to widening their target market to broader range of countries (and I repeat not just stop with India) and also hopefully start investing in more manufacturing and value-add capabilities within Australia and not just BS about human capital been so expensive here.

With TWE I think if China does ban their products you can expect a sharp drop in the price (it's already down about 45% from its peak last October) but expect it to drop much lower. Long term however I think this company will manage because as we have seen in Australia during the lockdowns, people love their alcohol and they really love their alcohol when everyone is locked in.

FYI I am currently not holding shares in TWE but would consider taking a position if it falls below $8 and I have the funding to do so.