hey Poet...Following on from your discussion...it appears...

hey Poet...

Following on from your discussion...it appears nothing has changed in this equation re: quality of the deposites, administration, technical staff at site, strong financial position, and number of "hot" targets to be drilled or are being drilled...Also perusing the previous ann. the potential drilling out of the twin EM data targets west of ARVD-146 HGZ and assay results for antas north holes 14,15 and 19, which is STILL IMO indicative of the growing potential here...

What has changed however, in the equation is the negetive global sentiment driving base metals prices down...

SO now on that topic, if you revise the price of Cu down to an average US$7000 per tonne... and now revamp the valuation for AVB's Antas North and South project, using a base case with only 100Mt @ 0.075% Cu and still assume the HIGHER probability that the 40,000m drilling program will be successful...In worst case scenario a 25% reduction in size based on geological variations in Carajas's IOCG deposits...

Now assuming we STILL have a Cu metellurgical recovery of 95%, a conversion rate of 90%...So we still have a total of approx 480,000tn of contained Cu...With current Cu price above US$7000/tn, AVB gross revenues would potentially STILL be a healthy US$3.36 billion.

Now assume TCO of US$1500/tn which includes all OPEX... AVB production would be 40,000tn Cu per annum using the median value from [Sydney August 31: (RWE Aust Business News)] and also using the authors 10-year mine life...
Now assume CAPEX considering a production size of 40,000tn Cu concentrate per annum, Capital Cost would potentially be US$300M in Brazil...

Now from this information a revised NPV valuation per share from 949 million fully diluted share-base can be calculated from the above inputs using a discount rate of 10%...inclusive of CAPEX and OPEX deductions...Assume also a further dillution of 50% for CAPEX raising for mine startup giving you 1.4235 billion fully dilluted share base...So less 300mill giving you a NPV of US$1.0518bill.. divided by the Total No of future shares issued...

This translates with a revised NPV per share based on a reduction to US$7000 per tonne for Cu

========AU 75 cents per share=====

for AVB's Carajas Projects...

This calculation conservatively attributes zero value to Au credits, all other greenfields assets held by AVB, zero value to the AU$19 million for deferred expenses for future drilling or new acquisitions and zero value to TN sale to Vale...A barebones view to assess current potential real value...since these calculations contain alot of assumptions so...DYOR