Some potential options in my view:
- If it is a competitive process as SPL has eluded to, which I have no reason to doubt, then perhaps they are deliberately holding out on a few points to ensure the best possible deal. Apart from appeasing short term share holders, what is the benefit of announcing this deal too early?
- The offers on the table are well below what was expected.
- Tactical reasons e.g. they may not want to sign / announce the partnership until closer to the FDA approval to minimize competitor threats (yes I know this is a novel product but there are other BV options available, either antibiotic or less effective treatments granted).
- Waiting for more information to be released by the FDA. Potentially even waiting for approval to announce the deal at the same time
- Number 4 is unlikely and would be contrary to what has been communicated by SPL. but this has always been on my mind that the partner will want to see the FDA approval before signing. Although again I think this is unlikely based on what has been communicated.
- Number 3 is possible but this hasn’t been the practice in other regions, so I think unlikely.
- Number 2 is possible, but this would be inconsistent with what they have communicated about a competitive process. It would also be inconsistent with the successful mundipharma deal. If this deal hadn’t of occurred, I would be concerned that vivagel was destined for a similar path to the condom commercialization, which is an abject failure.
- Number 1 is most probable in my opinion. Key terms are most likely completed after a lengthy process to ensure the best possible long-term deal with the right partner for success. Announcement due any minute, day, week or month..
Excludingthe Mundipharma deal it has been a frustrating wait for Vivagel commercializationin 2018. Regardless, we have the FDAapproval expected no later than January 2018 so we can expect the US deal aroundor before then. Not too much longer…
note, I have pretty much factored the FDA approval in as a given based on the phase III trial set up, which I think everyone on this board also agrees with?
