If you don't mind me saying that is as simplistic an argument as...

If you don't mind me saying that is as simplistic an argument as you could possibly make.

Firstly these scenarios assume you are trading gold bullion and I don't think too many people in gold bullion are there to trade it. Secondly most people I'd guess would have only a percentage of their total wealth in bullion, maybe 10-20%. Thirdly, I would argue that gold bullion would be a better investment than having been in one of the once esteemed investment banks or global corporations such as BearStearns, Enron or even locally Babock&Bust.

After reading at great lengths all of the posts on this forum in the last 2 months and listening to hundreds of interviews and reading hundreds of articles I have conclded that no human being on the face of this earth knows jack squat about the future despite our innately desperate need to know and our unwavering idiocy in thinking it is possible to know.

There are enough competing views across the spectrum of the human psyche that any event in retrospect will have been predicted by someone 100% of the time - not the same someone though for a series of events.

I have no clue anymore what will happen to the price of gold, I have no clue what the extent of the possibilites even are. The only thing I know are the boundary conditions, that is 0 and infinity. The only thing I can say for certain is that gold bullion will flucuate in price somewhere within that range.

As an aptly titled chapter in Carl Sagans Cosmos describes humans as "Compulsive Communicators" I put all these predictions, opinions, views, beliefs, theories and other twaddle in that basket - as humans compulsive need to discuss, talk, debate and otherwise escape boredom.

Well that's my rant for the morning - I have compulsively communicated my twaddle.