Unfortunately the raise was a kick in the teeth but I guess it is a step in the right direction to getting this project moving. I have been a shareholder since CYM took over Nifty. We had the restart study due in August, finance hopefully by Christmas. Famous last words..
In saying that I'll be here until production. Unfortunate events and overpromising have seen us reach the finance stage in the worst macro economic conditions of the year thus far and a 52 week low. From an operational perspective which is counts once we are plating copper, I see no team better then these guys at executing.
All hope is not lost.
The restart outlines an initial mine life of 6.3 years.
This will easily be extended to 10 years given the recent drilling results.
Recent MRE hasn't been included in the restart study, nor has it included just under 10,000t of copper in inferred resources (now 22,000t), or the Nifty east drilling results.
The restart study only includes 76.4kt of contained copper from the open pit. The rest is the old heap leach material (91kt Cu) making up 135,000t over the 6.3 years.
If we take figures from the MRE which includes inferred but not the Nifty East results then we get this.
144,300+91,000 (Old HL) = 235,300t Cu Average grade I estimate to be 0.68% Cu.Bare in mind roughly 40% of the material gets picked up by a front end loader an straight onto the conveyer with no mining required.
Using what the restart study uses (equivalent to a bankable feasibility standard (BFS))
146,100 copper cathode produced divided by phase 1 LOM we get 23,190 copper metal plate produced pa.
So 235,300/23,190 = A LOM of 10.1 years without Nifty east results. Now the restart study on it's own still has a 36% post tax IRR with a copper price of $8,200 US per tonne. This is also with a much stronger USD.
"This Re-start Study only includes ore types that have previously been beneficiated on site."We now know that every single copper containing mineral has successfully been leached by Cyprium.
"Mineralogical reports to date have shown leaching of the full suite of copper minerals from the retreat material, including minerals in the various rock types, and including secondary and primary sulphide minerals such as covellite, digenite, bornite and chalcopyrite."
As others have pointed out the AUD has dropped. 0.75c was used in the study compared to 0.68 where it is now. CYM are making nearly 600 USD per tonne more than the $9000 USD copper price they used in the restart study. Current copper price sitting at $8242 not far off it's 52 week low ($8222). or just over $3.50 per lb.
To add more positive insight into the projects viability is the fact the restart study is based on a leach time of 360 days and 85% recovery.
Barry has since alluded to the fact they can achieve just over 90% recovery. Reagents are being optimized and will save further costs. Not only that they believe they can cut the heap leach time down from 360 days to 180 days. A comment I say as speculation now as I can't find where Barry said this but in an interview i'm sure he said 90 days could be possible.
From a statement made by AR1.
Leaching performance of Anthill ore is excellent with rapid initial leach kinetics, mettalurgical testing demonstrated 60 days for 60% of the contained copper to be leached out of the ore and 270 days to achieve a planned 85.2% overall copper recovery. Relatively fast leach characteristics means that copper production quickly increases shortly after ore is stacked.
Given all this, and the strong fundamentals of the copper price, this project still looks attractive.
Also producing copper cathode means that in a high inflationary environment with freight costs, diesel costs etc. Other companies who produce concentrate will be shipping a volume 3.7x bigger (I based this on an average concentrate grade of 27%) then CYM's copper cathode which requires no smeltering before going to market.
(20min delay)
