Not even close. You are saying for a 5 to 10 year bet. Let's say...

Not even close.

You are saying for a 5 to 10 year bet. Let's say that the price (theoretically is going to be $5.00). You park your money in SGH now at 25c with let's say a 20% chance of $5.00 (2000% return) and an 80% chance of $0 (100% loss). Expected Return is 400%

Now let's say Tumble doesn't buy now but buys after the banks confirm support for SGH. He pay's 50c with an 80% chance of $5.00 (1000%) and 20% chance of $0.00 (100% loss). Expected Return is 800%.

Even ignoring statistics if you are willing to take risks you could invest in an oil and gas or a gold junior and make 50 to 100% on far less risk now and then invest in SGH after banks give support (even if that is at 50c) and make the same return. For considerably less risk