WDS 2.72% $27.60 woodside energy group ltd

WPL - Now What ?, page-30

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    Crimea is still claimed by Ukraine. Ceding would be Ukraine recognizing the Russian's annexation of Crimea. Donetsk and Luhansk separatist regions would be additional bonuses for Putin, but not necessary. Putin might actually want to reintegrate them into Ukraine to ensure that it doesn't renege on its NATO neutrality promise by electorally vetoing any changes to the constitution. This was a main pillar of the Minsk Agreements.

    Zelenskyy saying Ukraine will be independent and not join NATO for the foreseeable future was what he said prior to the invasion. But because the goal of NATO membership is in the Constitution of Ukraine and the country could if Zelenskyy breaks his promise or a new more pro-West candidate is elected, this was not enough and so Putin invaded anyway.

    Thus any peace would need a treaty and an amendment to of the Ukrainian Constitution. I doubt the Zelenskyy government would agree to that.

    I am in optimist in that I would like peace. But I am a realist in that the two sides are far too apart and it seems Putin has the upper hand with most large cities under siege and big gains in the South and East. Putin probably wins the initial war but will lose long term in the guerilla war that is likely to follow. Given this assessment and how Putin thinks, he would not fold or change his demands in the current situation.
 
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