You'd just need a 40-50mt reserve for 20yr LOM.
2 - 2.5mtpa is ~norm for projects being planned.
Imo Adina could easily "tread water" and turn a modest profit during early years (also most efficient years of mining.)
It would be an operating mine, economically sustainable, and online if/when SC6 prices increase (or possibly spike dramatically) for the owners to reap the profits, PLS style.
With that in mind, some modelling for Adina using low SC6 prices:
Years 1-7 (shallow high-grade zone):
2.5mtpa @ 1.4% and 75% recovery = 438 ktpa SC6
Say AISC 650 usd /t and SC6 price 1050 /t = 265m aud EBITDA /yr
Years 8-13 (avg grade decreasing):
2.5mtpa @ 1.3% and 75% recovery = 407 ktpa SC6
Say AISC 700 usd /t and SC6 price 1250 /t = 340m aud EBITDA /yr
Years 14-20:
2.5mtpa @ 1.2% and 75% recovery = 375 ktpa SC6
Say AISC 750 usd /t and SC6 price 1400 /t = 370m aud EBITDA /yr
Hope I got those numbers right.
Total EBITDA over 20 years = 6.5bn aud
Could be some significant tax credits too.
You'd just need a 40-50mt reserve for 20yr LOM.2 - 2.5mtpa is...
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