XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-15306

Last night's price action looked like a rug-pull by the fed. (I say this because nothing else moved very much (eg gold).)

Now, why would the fed want the market to go down? Two reasons:

1) the rising market cashes up people who own pension funds (everybody) and risks increasing inflation.

2) no one is buying bonds because the stock market just keeps going up.


If the market goes down (like in a bear market):

1) investors will buy more of Yellen's (safehaven) gov bonds to hedge against their stock losses.

2) consumers will clam-up and bring inflation down.

The fed needs both these things to happen so that Yellen can sell 6.5 trillion worth of gov bonds and avert a catastrophe. Besides that, the banks wont buy the bonds either unless they are convinced inflation is coming down and interest rate cuts are coming, as promised to them by the fed.

As they say, don't fight the fed.

(The GFC might be off the cards for now because Biden is worried about the polls. But, can't be sure on that.)