Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

XJO

Click for more information

1.75%

8,092.3 s&p/asx 200

Be careful of what faith you mention ... you can be locked up...

First 16085 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Ewebute

5,947 Posts.

953

14/06/24

15:18

Post #: 74319489
Share

Originally posted by wave4: ↑

Interesting call on the melt up!
In theory according to Roger Montgomery "lower interest rates result in a lift to the present value of future cash flows"
So from a fundamental perspective stock prices should be worth more if interest rates are cut?

You only have to look at XUJ since the start of the year, it has been rallying as utility stocks carry a lot of debt & hoping for some relief ?

However when I look at the available data on "how markets react" it still looks like a coin toss either way.

Here is what happened after the 1st interest rate hike ( markets should go down as future earnings our worth less in todays dollars).

Looking back at interest rate cuts we get a result that contradicts Roger Montgomery's fundamental view.
The data from @barchart shows on average it takes around 195 days for the low to form after the first cut.

Personally I try not to have any bias (up or down) & wait for stock prices to show me the way!

Expand

The last two times that there was a Buffett Bubble being 2000 and 2008, these took the longest to bottom out. The time it took to return to those highs was way long too... Just saying

Originally posted by durmaz: ↑

Artificial intelligence is real and going to transform companies and the economy, we are still in the goldi locks period where the fed is no longer going to increase rates and will start cutting soon. Its after the first cut that you need to worry, at the moment all economic indicators are firing on all cylinders. My guess is we have a healthy correction from August into the US election which will be blamed on the election and then after the election we get a boom. Rates arent coming down anytime soon so stay on the right side of the trade which is only up!!!

Expand

Yes.. I agree.. I remember the same thing being said of the Tech companies in 2000.. Only problem, is that the reality took a lot longer than the story... I wonder if that is the case this time around...

Also... AI... Saviour or destroyer of jobs... Everyone says tech creates jobs... but if the AI is able to repurpose which it can, then it will take most of those 'new' jobs anyway. So in the end, just a society surviving on the Govt Handouts and no money needing to be spent on goods (or can't afford to spend) which destroys the sales of those said companies.. lol

Originally posted by Jrowl1: ↑

I can see how a melt up/crack up boom can happen, weak economic growth (supposedly), people concerned how much the government is spending and starting wars causing problems all around the world, western leaders have all changed to becoming liars at every turn.

He has multiple investment properties, but still apparently ment to be different.

I think probably the biggest black swan out there.....Jews have been running western countries with front men for decades creating policies to ruin peoples lives deliberately (hardly anyone knows about this), creating horrendous problems that can be seen by everyone and many more going to bubble to the surface yet unseen, government is doubling down on all of these policies all the time. When the masses find out, it's Weimar Germany again and the currency collapses because ALL faith is lost in the leadership, we can't even choose a different leader because they have been all setup to do the same thing.

Expand

Be careful of what faith you mention ... you can be locked up for 'hate' crimes against one type of faith at present.

XJO Value at posting: 7,725.8
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

KOB

Koba, formerly a cobalt player, gears up to become newest explorer in the uranium state: South Australia

MRC

Mineral Commodities to shut down Tormin mineral sands project as oil spill contaminates beach

MGU

New results confirm Buena Vista's iron grades potential

1CG

One Click Group jumps 4% after ending quarter with $2.4M in cash; $1M in revenue and 150K+ users on board

Trimmed CPI figure provokes market jump of 1%, but inflation pressures remain a reality

There are more pages in this discussion • 341 more messages in this thread...

First 16085 Last

Add XJO (ASX) to my watchlist