I have been following SPL since the pooled investment days as well - whilst it's been a very, very long time - the P3 BV results were extremely positive and encouraging the last time, except that the placebo also provided better than expected outcomes and hence we didn't meet statistically significant differences between Vivagel and placebo.
This time around, I expect the same results, however, we have lowered our end-point from cure to simple relief and I expect that we'll meet this expectation. (In fact if you look at the last P3, then we would have met this then as well).
So i'm very bullish this stock and expect the sp to go back to ~$1.80 once we announce that we've started trials and much higher on positive results. With a $1Bn market and no competitors (except anti-biotics), an assumed 50% margin and 30% net profit = $300M bottom-line which is $1+ps earnings.
To get to this stage, we have 6-9 months at least (4-8 weeks for setting up trial, 16 week trial, results analysis and fda process) - so value will start to be recognized over the next 6-12 months and during this time Allan Gray and other institutions that hold shares are slowing increasing their holdings.
This is all my opinion and I have been wrong/ too optimistic too early before (i.e. the condoms side, cancer, etc which were promised 5+ yrs ago haven't come thru yet) - so DYOR and GL.
SPL Price at posting:
58.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
