Yes PAN is unhedged and will currently benefit from spot prices. However, as I understand, spot pricing will be determined (from the shipment date) using a weighted average model over a number of ‘days’ (exact number not known as I think commercially privileged info).
I.e It could be 5 days or it could be 12 days.
Basic example:-
24 March - Nickel $37,102 a tonne 25 March - Nickel $35,123 a tonne 26 March - Nickel $31,800 a tonne 27 March - Nickel $39,450 a tonne 28 March - Nickel $35,600 a tonne 29 March - Nickel $33,240 a tonne 31 March - Nickel $34,500 a tonne
Weighted average using 7 days (example) $35,259 a tonne.
More broadly, the true weighted average can be worked out by reverse engineering the invoice against quantity.
So this may also further explain why your numbers are not aligning when using just the (shipment date) to determine spot prices.
(20min delay)