AKP (ASX) Missed Every Milestone MEMS-Analysis

Originally posted by BobF ↑

"... I think the collective angst is more about the history of delays and prehaps managements ability to colour slightly outside the lines whilst staying compliant with the rules. ..."

"colour slightly outside the lines" is a very good aphorism. I like it. It very much sums up what the announcements actually do whether or not that can be said to be their precise aim. They seem reassuring until you dissect them patiently with a very sharp scalpel over several months. This way of communicating the desired nuances of the situation is one of the constants with AKP. I wish it was different.

What I really wish is that they came out and told us directly things like "... we've hit a brick wall with the physics and we are trying to find a solution to it. What we thought would work has not done so reliably. There is no information on this available because nobody has ever tried to do this before. This could take us at least a few more months to solve, maybe 3 or even 4, and we have had to buy a new software tool to do so. Early results are promising, and should lead to a practicable solution to the X problem within a 5-6 month time frame. ..." followed by "... we now have a good handle on the causes of problem X and have started trials of a new approach. If that works we will have new wafers coming through to us for testing in another 6 weeks because that's how long the build cycle takes. We'll let you know as soon as we have representative data. If there are delays we'll tell you as soon as we know that. Sorry about the delays. We had no idea we would encounter them but we are trying really, really hard. Please hang on a bit longer. ..."

What we seem to always get is carefully massaged publication quality info: "... We've now solved a problem we did not tell you we'd had. We are hopeful this will lead to finished products imminently, and we hope to have them in our hands by YY/YY/YY. We will tell you more 2, 3, 4, or 5 months afterwards when we are confident that what we tell you is long after the next AGM. ..."

The point is I am not unhappy to wait out the resolution of 'technical developments' because I know very well that they are the norm, and necessary to the task. The team behind the work seem to be just the sort of people who solve these kinds of problems, and I'm reasonably confident that they will do so. So that is not the problem. But I do feel like the proverbial mushroom, kept in the dark and fed that brown stuff.

I don't mean to be too cynical but like many others here I've been hanging on by my teeth and wish to hell that they would deliver what they keep promising they have already done. I'm still hanging on, but I'm old, and my teeth are pretty tired. Yet I have no intention of letting go without my well deserved mouthful. Tonight could be the night! GLTAH!

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Bob, I too share your frustrations, both from a long in the tooth and investment longevity perspective. While the lack of clarity around comms and delivery of updates on an as legally required basis is very frustrating this is not a priority for management and the directors. This I understand. I too am more interested in demos to potential clients and order taking which should result in revenue flowing to AKP. We have previously been told AKP expects sales to take place in the last quarter of 2023. We are almost at that timeline and there have been no announcements to counter that expectation.
My greater concern at present is related to EM. When first announced I had some concerns about the risks of being exposed to a dedicated FAB located in China. The dollars and people committed to the project by EM as detailed on their website provided significant comfort that just maybe this was a partnership that would deliver for both parties. Unfortunately nothing is what it seems when dealing with China. A business colleague with many years experience of transacting business in China has recently returned from a business trip to mainland China and reported the frustrations dealing with what we take for granted in the western world. As an example he reported only Chinese based search engines work. Google has been blocked from use within China. Internet speeds are so slow that even downloading emails is to be avoided. On a positive note, in the sector in which he is doing business minimum order quantities are now negotiable within reason whereas previously they were fixed at much higher levels.
We see EM has revamped their website and despite my best efforts I have been unable to access their new site. I have no idea why they would do this if it was not to improve their comms with potential customers and others interested in their business. Could it be that AKP have asked them to make access to their website less accessable for outsiders? Maybe the EM site is easily accessable from within China?
I am also advised that very strict controls on currency movements outside China have been in place for sometime, reminiscent of 20 years ago when exchange controls meant Chinese businessmen developed work arounds in order to move their cash out of the Chinese system. This could be the main reason EM have not been able to gain approval for remitting the funds they wish to invest in AKP. If this is fact then AKP should communicate this to shareholders and not blame the application process. These are understandable cause and effect delays which should be clearly communicated to interested and affected parties and I believe we are in that category?
In the absence of any announcement to the contrary it seems obvious the Gen 2 chips have been delivered to AKP in Tel Aviv, been tested and met the required specifications. Demo boards are being populated with these chips and demos to interested parties being undertaken.
An EGM and demo to shareholders would be a bonus but not important at this stage in the progress of the AKP business development strategy. Customer orders will reward us for our patience. A live demo would be great but not the top of my list of priorities for AKP to deliver over the next three months.