AVZ (ASX) Running discussion on SP

Originally posted by Freehold ↑

Saw a Argonaut broker report for another ASX hard rock outfit (that will remain unnamed ) which included this peer chart. The black vertical lines represent the amount of Jorc "Reserves" .

Report was dated 8th July 2021

It specifically points out AVZ as an exception to all other peers?? It states:-

"... The EV/Li2Oratio typically increases with advancement of project maturity. Projects
at Resource definition stage generate an EV/Li2O between $80/t & $224/t. The
EV/Li2O ratio value effectively doubles for projects with completed pre-feasibility or
definitive feasibility studies. With the exception of AVZ which owns the Monano
project located in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, all companies trade with
an EV/Li2O ratio between $413/t and $704/t. Interestingly this is true irrespective
of the scale of total contained Li2O tonnes...."

Ive circled AVZ in red above... It is the only hard rock outfit which has this large disconnect between tonnage and EV and project Stage.
My question is why is AVZ an exception to the rule... ?? . It does not make sense to me that all hard rock outfits fall into a general rule except us.? I note that there are 2 Mali deposits and one in Zimbabwe but they are all valued the same. Except us Why?

Now the broker report is dated 8th July and we have nearly doubled MCap since then but this would only give us a EV per tonne of Approx $200 when we should be $600+

So we are MASSIVELY undervalued based on what resource we have and project stage nearing finance/ML compared to ALL other Peers.

We should be valued with an EV near $600-700/tonne .... You can all do the Math 401mt @ $650/t = $2.6Bill

Given we will own 75% of project shortly then fair value once 75% acquired is at least an EV of $1.95 Billion

Note: This is not putting us as overvalued simply putting us at Par with our peers group

PS: The charts above were on mcaps @ 8 July 2021 subsequently prices of all these lithium peers have risen in the last 4 weeks so I am understating updraft with my figures above. We should be well over $2Bill in retrospect.

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Good morning @Freehold et al,

Nice find re: Argonaut, albeit the hard rock peers resources and reserves graph from their July 8 report (as illustrated in your post) is already out of date, as it shows AVZ at 60% ownership and Manono's old reserves at ~90mt.

So I've kindly updated it (see below) to show AVZ @75% [now that the required cash has been raised] & the recent reserves upgrade / marker of 131mt.

It's also worth noting that the black vertical markers (above) indicate the reserve tonnage only, and should not be confused with each project's contained Li20.

Thus, if one calculates each project's hard rock reserves in terms of contained Li20, then AVZ (due to its higher grade Li20 content versus every single one of its listed peers above excluding Greenbushes) ranks second on the list at 2.15mt, and only below Greenbushes at ~2.9mt Li20 (minus what has already been mined at GB since 2018).

Furthermore, those who have done their due diligence would know that AVZ's reported JORC resources and reserves to date are just the tip of the iceberg, and in all likelihood Manono's reserves will easily surpass Greenbushes i.e. once reserves at CDL have been defined and earmarked for a CDL only BFS (IMO).

Exciting times ahead.

GLTA

Cheers
Elpha